A New York Times article today titled ‘Japanese Output Rises by 1.6 Percent’ says Japanese Industrial production rose in March for the first time in six months, and is poised to continue growing. The article also reported the Japanese central bank left its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.1%, held off further moves to boost corporate financing, but still expects Japan’s economy to shrink 3.1% in 2009 – higher than the 2% plus contraction it predicted in January. The rebound was led by a jump in electronic parts and machinery shipments. Japanese factory output is projected to jump 4.3% and 6.1% in April and May respectively. Japanese exports rose 2% in March from February, the first increase in nearly a year. These numbers are encouraging, but I continue to think for meaningful recovery to occur in the U.S. and the rest of the world – perhaps with the exception of China and other economies that hold large U.S.$ reserves – the U.S. job losses must be reversed and U.S. consumer spending must pick up significantly. So far that seems not to be happening.

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