Two articles this morning titled ‘U.S. private sector sheds 473,000 jobs in June’ and ‘U.S. jobless rate seen highest since 1983’ report U.S. June Job Loss Estimates at 473,000 and 355,000 respectively.  The first article says that 485,000 jobs were lost in May, which is consistent with what the reporting group (ADP Employer Services) said in early June, but about 150,000 job losses more than the U.S. Government reported for May.  The second reported estimate, 355,000 job losses, based on a median forecast of 62 economists as is the first report – obviously different economists were surveyed.  It won’t be long before the ‘official’ U.S. Labor Department number is released this morning.  I have posted the estimates reported this morning simply because I am beginning to wonder about the veracity of any of the numbers posted.  Again, some commentators are reported as saying (in essence) ‘this is bad news, but it really is good news because monthly job losses are less than they previously were so the trend is in the right direction’.  For reasons I frequently comment about on this blog I consider this thinking wrong-headed as an indicator of the timing of U.S. economic recovery.  I will be writing a more complete post this morning after the U.S. Labor Department reports its numbers.

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