The Washington Post carried a brief story today titled ‘By the Numbers’ which said that it is estimated that 40 million U.S. households have limited or no access to banks or credit – and that the estimated median household income for those households was $26,390, about half the U.S. national median household income.  Considering there were approximately 116 million total U.S. households in March, 2007 (U.S. Government Statistics) there likely are just under 120 million total U.S. households today.  Accordingly if the reported statistics are correct about 1/3 of all U.S. households have limited or no access to credit today.

In a second article yesterday titled ‘U.S. recession over, unemployment seen at 10 percent’ reports a survey of 44 professional forecasters says “the worst U.S. recession since the Great Depression has ended, but weak household spending as the labor market struggles to create jobs will slow the pace of the economy’s recovery, according to a survey released on Monday”, but that “While the economy is believed to have rebounded in the third quarter, analysts believe that ordinary Americans will probably not see much difference as unemployment will remain high well into 2010, restraining consumption”.

Given that a return to growth in GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the technical ‘economist speak’ for what constitutes recovery, the U.S. indeed may technically now be in economic recovery – at least for the time being.  That said, if 1/3 of U.S. households are limited in, or unable to get, credit it seems highly unlikely that said recovery will be strong, or perhaps even sustainable in forthcoming fiscal quarters.  The U.S. consumer juggernaut, which is what I think supported world economic growth through the 1999 – 2007 period is, at least in my view, unlikely to return to its former levels of spending any time soon.

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