Nov 30 2009
A Market For Strong Stomachs
The following is the text of an e-mail I sent today to Subscribers of StockResearchPortal.com. StockResearchPortal.com is a research website that provides coverage on the approximate 1,600 Mining and Oil & Gas stocks listed on the Toronto and Toronto Venture Stock Exchanges.
* * * * *
Last Thursday I ended my e-mail by saying I see the current equity markets as very uncertain and volatile, and that I can’t over-emphasize what I consider to be the importance of ‘thinking for yourself’ in these and prospective market conditions. This was reinforced for me again Friday morning when I opened my computer to learn that on Thursday night the Asian markets had dropped precipitously (the AORD, NIKKEI and HSI being down 2.8%, 3.2% and 4.8% respectively), and that gold had fallen at 3:00 a.m. ET Friday by approximately $50 to $1,140. By 9:00 a.m. Friday morning, the FTSE was down slightly, gold had recovered to $1,154 (and later Friday recovered further to about $1,174), and the Dow Futures were down 211 about 25 minutes before the NYSE opened for an abbreviated 4 hour trading day (it closed Friday down 154 points, or 1.5%).
This activity was (and continues to be) largely attributed by commentators and analysts to Dubai ’stunning investors’ (see article by clicking here) by requesting lenders to Dubai World, Dubai’s main investment vehicle, to suspend payments on U.S.$59 billion in debt for 6 months. To me, the skittishness of the world equity markets to such a request again emphasizes the short-term thinking and immediate reaction (over-reaction?) to any news - be it positive or negative. I do not believe such activity is the hallmark of a disciplined market populated largely by thoughtful, long-term investors. Certainly if nothing else, such activity for me belies the ‘efficient market theory’ espoused by so many market followers - a concept I personally have never given much credence to going back at least 20 years.
As I see it, this is indeed a ‘Market for those with Strong Stomachs’ where:
· the more you study macro-economics, and what I see as rapidly developing changes and weightings in the world order;
· the more you study the equity markets and develop an ‘investment philosophy and strategy’ that is ‘right for you’ given your own personal risk tolerance;
· the more you study the companies you invest in, and form your own opinions as to the risk profiles of those companies and whether those risk profiles comply with your investment philosophy and strategy; and,
· the less you rely on third parties to make your investment decisions for you
the better off you will be, the less you will need to regularly ingest a ‘Maalox type product’, the better you will sleep at night, and the happier you are likely to be.
On my continuous point of taking a large (for many people I am sure ‘greater’) role in making investing decisions with respect to your own capital, Thursday a reader took the time to send me a thoughtful e-mail setting out his general views on interacting with investment advisors. In essence he expressed the view that he thought my advice to people who participate in the equity markets who are not knowledgeable investors is ‘as good as any’ other advice (i.e. spend a lot of time talking and consulting with your investment advisor). However, he also expressed the view that knowledgeable investors should be encouraged to have specific discussions with their advisors to determine how much those advisors really understand about the various aspects of gold and silver investments, both as insurance and, in the case of mining stocks, as investments (read equity investments generally).
This suggestions make good sense to me, and captures an idea I haven’t expressed in these e-mails, but frankly (perhaps in error) have taken for granted. Simply put, the more you know, the better position you are in to determine how knowledgeable your investment advisor is - and hence how valuable to you the advice you receive from him/her is to you. Clearly, if at any time you are not confident in your assessment of your investment advisor’s level of knowledge, in my view you ought to find an investment advisor whose knowledge base is at a level you are satisfied with. I think that by not continuously making such ‘investor advisor assessments’ you do yourself a disservice.
See Blog Legal Disclaimer
| Timely Research on more than 1,600 Canadian Mining and Oil & Gas companies. |
| Free subscription, click here! |


