Sep 09 2010

Shrinking ‘Fiscal Space’, U.S. Jobs, Bad/Good News’

Read ‘Shrinking ‘Fiscal Space’, U.S. Jobs, Bad/Good News‘, e-mailed today to StockResearchPortal.com Subscribers.  The e-mail discusses:

  • a ‘just released’ International Monetary Fund paper dealing with country borrowing and possible practical limits related to that;
  • an article that seems to see ‘Good News’ in last Friday’s U.S. Jobs Report;
  • bad news that is either misinterpreted as good news, or presented by the Press and Internet commentators as good news; and,
  • a proprietary Press Release Tables feature offered by StockResearchPortal.com that we think ought to be of interest to all Resource Equity Investors and Traders.

In part, the e-mail reads:

“Shrinking ‘Fiscal Space’

An article Sunday titled ‘America’s Shrinking ‘Fiscal Space‘ discusses an International Monetary Fund paper titled ‘Fiscal Space’ that was published last week.  The IMF paper discusses the difference on a country by country basis between each country’s current level of debt and its ‘theoretical debt limit’.  I consider this short article a ‘must read’ – reading time 3 minutes.  If you are interested in pursuing this topic further the article provides access to the IMF paper in PDF format.

U.S. Jobs

An article written last Friday (the day the U.S. August Jobs Report was released) titled ‘Jobs, Bonds and My Friend the Bear‘ has interesting charts on U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates which show several ‘sector specific’ payroll changes, average hourly earning numbers, and average weekly hours worked.  The author relates these things to what he refers to as the U.S. Unemployment Rate.  As I read the article, although the author didn’t seem to me to conclude much from the data he presented, he was attempting to draw positives about U.S. unemployment going forward.  I commented on the article as follows:

In my view, to attempt to draw anything that is ‘meaningfully positive’ from yesterday’s U.S. Job Numbers is at best ‘grasping at straws’ for two reasons: (1) the net increase in private sector jobs of 67,000 simply is not material, and was of course, offset by public sector job losses – including loss of temporary ‘Census Jobs’, and (2) I currently see nothing on the economic horizon that I think is going to create meaningful numbers of meaningful (and by that I mean ‘long-term, full-time, manufacturing) jobs.

To see much good, or worst possible trends, in single economic reports seems to me to be akin to the ‘Green Shoots’ type commentary well in evidence a year or so ago. It seems to me that currently real ‘Green Shoots’ are about as rare as ’4 leaf clovers’ and ‘leprechauns’. If you are interested in reading my comments on ‘Green Shoots’ made when they were in ‘big-time vogue’ – I thought that talk was ‘a lot of hooey’ both then and now – you can do that by visiting a Blog Post I wrote in June, 2009 titled ‘The Positive Spin Being Put On Green Shoots And Other Things!’ by clicking here.

Interestingly, …..” – to continue reading click here

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