Jan 31 2011
Video, New Book, Egypt
Video
If I were a reader of these e-mails I would be curious to know something about the person who writes them. If you are of like mind and want to satisfy your curiosity, watch a video titled ‘A top resource analytics website you’ve likely never visited‘ recorded last week by Investors Executive – viewing time 6 minutes. There you will see and hear me discussing why the website exists and where we plan to take it. Investment Executive is a Canadian trade publication for financial advisors published by Transcontinental Media. Its readership includes more than 120,000 financial advisors and others in the financial services industry.
New Book
The Wall Street Journal ‘Real Time Economics’ Blog carried an article this morning highlighting a new book by George Mason University economist Tyler Cowen titled ‘The Great Stagnation, Low-Hanging Fruit and America’s Sputnik Moment‘ – article reading time 2 minutes. The book is available on Kindle for under $4.00. I immediately warmed up my I-Pad, went to Kindle, and downloaded the book. I then scanned the book, which took me about 30 minutes. I may go back and read the book in more detail, but I believe I got what I think is the essential message from it which I will describe as: ‘Historically America has had a pretty easy time of things from an economic growth perspective. This has resulted from the free and productive land available to early settlers, the technological developments of electricity, the car, mechanized farm equipment, the telephone, the computer, etc. – all things that contributed wealth across America’s demographic groups. But all that has changed. Those technical innovations were comparative ‘low hanging fruit’, and now the hard job of picking the fruit higher up the tree must be undertaken for meaningful economic improvement to take place’. Cowen makes no real suggestions as to what such ‘harder to get fruit’ might be, but as I read his book he doesn’t conclude any technologies that do evolve necessarily will be large sources of meaningful U.S. employment.
For me Cowen has expressed, in different analogies than I would have thought of, simple ideas that I think drive important economic points home. While written in an American context, his ideas and words in many respects are without borders. While I think he fails to adequately discuss differing ideologies between the developed and emerging market countries – which I consider naïve – I think you ought first to read the WSJ Blog article. If you find what that article and I say about Cowen’s book intriguing, visit the Kindle bookstore and buy the book for under $4.00 and either scan it (30 minutes) or read it (likely about 90 minutes) if you are an equity investor and have access to a Kindle or ‘Kindle friendly’ device.
Egypt
Consider reading two articles published this weekend titled ‘What’s Behind Egypt’s Problems?‘ and ‘Gold and Oil Reversing Higher On Islamic Revolutions‘ – reading times 4 and 2 minutes respectively. Having read them and having made multiple visits to newscasts covering the riots in Egypt, I think it important to summarize what I take to be the reasons underlying this ongoing (as I write this) social/political instability. As I have never been to either the Middle East or Egypt I can claim no expertise in this commentary. It is a summary of what I have read, heard, and what makes sense to me based on those things – and I am sure as a summary it is far from complete. That said, inflammatory elements leading to Egypt’s riots are said to include:
· similar events that have recently occurred in Tunisia, with suggestions from many fronts that to at least some degree (I am sure you have heard this), Tunisia may have been a catalyst in inducing the Egyptian populace to riot. There are also questions as to whether Iran has a hand in all this given the considered importance of a ‘stable Egypt’ to the U.S. and the Europe. This importance is being attributed to Egypt acting as a Middle East stabilizer, and because its control of the Suez Canal is important to European oil supplies;
· Egypt provides its populace with food subsidies, and in the past apparently has threatened to reduce those subsidies. Currently it is not planning to reduce food subsidies and is reported as planning to raise oil subsidies – all in circumstances where Egyptians are worried those subsidies will prove inadequate;
· the ongoing devaluation of the U.S.$ as the World Reserve Currency has caused prices of basic goods to rise in Egypt and other ‘emerging economies’. In particular food prices are said to have risen in circumstances where one article claims Egypt to be the world’s largest wheat importer. It is reported that Egypt imports 40% of its food and 60% of the wheat it uses;
· land available for agriculture has shrunk in Egypt as land is used for housing and commercial purposes. This is, of course, a problem common to many both developed and emerging economies;
· young people are unemployed, and face little by way of employment prospects. Again, this is a problem in other countries, not the least of which are the U.S. and the UK. Readers of my e-mails will know I consider this to be a particularly insidious problem – and I think one that will come to ‘bite the behind’ of every country that does not address this issue constructively and successfully in the near term. I have frequently said in these e-mails that ‘idle hands make the devil’s work’; and,
· I think interestingly, access by the so-called ‘middle-class poor‘ ( a blatant oxymoron, but perhaps to a ‘new commentator phrase’) to the Internet. That access enables demonstrators to organize themselves far better than they otherwise would be able to do – to the point where the Egyptian Government cut off Internet access late last week. I believe that has now been all or in part is restored.
It is said that starting about now (2010 – 2011) Egypt will have to begin to import oil. It is also said that Egypt in 2009 (latest reported year) overspent its revenues by about 33%, and that for 2010 Egypt’s government debt amounted to about 80% of its GDP – a debt level “far above that of most African and Arab nations. Link this back to the ‘subsidies’ point above, and reach your own conclusion on this.
Additions to Stock Research Portal’s Company Universe
Today we added the following Companies to our Company Universe:
Angus Mining (Namibia) Inc. (TSXV:ANA). We currently categorize Angus Mining (Namibia) Inc. as a gold explorer operating principally in Africa (Namibia). Angus Mining (Namibia) Inc.’s current market capitalization is approximately Cdn$17 million. Review research data on Angus Mining (Namibia) Inc.
Foraco International S.A. (TSX:FAR). We currently categorize Foraco International S.A. as an Oil and Gas Services company operating principally in Europe (also in Africa, Canada, Oceania, Russia and South America). Foraco International S.A.’s current market capitalization is approximately Cdn$180million. Review research data on Foraco International S.A.
Skywest Energy Corp. (TSXV:SKW). We currently categorize Skywest Energy Corp. as an oil & gas explorer and producer operating principally in the Canada (Alberta). Skywest Energy Corp.’ s current market capitalization is approximately Cdn$180 million. Review research data on Skywest Energy Corp.
Press Release Highlights
The following table summarizes the companies in Stock Research Portal’s Company Universe who yesterday issued Press Releases and whose shares increased in price from the previous day’s close by more than Cdn$0.05, more than 10%, and whose share volumes yesterday exceeded their trailing 3 month average trading volume. You can research each of these companies by clicking on the company name in the table.
No companies met our Selection Criteria on either Thursday, January 27 or Friday, January 28.
Insider Trading Highlights
The following table summarizes the companies in Stock Research Portal’s Company Universe for who our system on Thursday, January 27 and on Friday, January 28 reported insiders who filed reports indicating they had acquired shares through ‘purchase’ transactions. You can research each of these companies by clicking on the company name in the table.
Thursday, January 27
| Company Name | Symbol | Sub-Industry |
|---|---|---|
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OTCBB:ASXS.F, DB:QLDN, TSXV:ASX
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Uranium
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|
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TSX:ATN, DB:5AT
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Gold
|
|
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TSXV:CAA, DB:3C3
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Base Metals
|
|
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TSXV:SPI, DB:HP4
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Focus on Gas
|
|
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TSXV:CXM, DB:4CX1
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Base Metals
|
|
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TSXV:CRC, DB:R7ON
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Gold
|
|
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TSX:DZR, DB:DI9A
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Focus on Gas
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|
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TSXV:GRI, TSXV:GRI
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Gold
|
|
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TSXV:GCU, DB:GC3
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Gold
|
|
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TSX:NGQ, DB:6CG
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Gold
|
|
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TSX:ORE, DB:OEX
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Gold
|
|
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TSXV:PX, DB:67P
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Gold
|
|
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TSXV:PEN, DB:NP6
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Focus on Oil
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|
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TSXV:PLE, DB:PXZ
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Gold
|
|
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TSXV:RDU, OTCBB:RDUF.F, DB:RUG
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Gold
|
|
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TSXV:RGD
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Gold
|
|
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TSXV:RVC
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Base Metals
|
|
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TSXV:RRS, DB:GDO1
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Gold
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|
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TSXV:SWR
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Gold
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TSXV:WKM
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Gold
|
|
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TSX:YRB.A, DB:UAN
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Gold
|
Friday, January 28
| Company Name | Symbol | Sub-Industry |
|---|---|---|
|
TSXV:CED
|
Gold
|
|
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TSXV:MRO
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Gold
|
|
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TSX:NGQ, DB:6CG
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Gold
|
|
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TSX:ORE, DB:OEX
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Gold
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TSXV:SGX, DB:RSEN
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Gold
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|
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TSX:SAM, DB:V4J
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Gold
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|
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TSXV:YGR, DB:702A, TSXV:YGR
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Focus on Gas
|
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