To put world jobs in perspective, a recent article says that about 80 million jobs need to be created over the next two years to return employment rates to pre-crisis (I assume that means 2007 or mid-2008) levels.  I also assume that world population demographics forecasts have been factored into this estimate.  The article also says that a current stalled global recovery has begun to affect labor markets dramatically and that based on current trends it will take at least five years for employment in developed countries to return to pre-crisis levels.  I am unable to tell from the article whether that is intended to mean developed country employment measured in absolute numbers of jobs, or measured by a reported employment rate.  Finally, the article says that the International Labor Organization (‘ILO’), having issued such dire numbers, said that all this may result in social unrest in “scores of countries”.  My comments:

• I have continued intuitive concern about the veracity of reported v. unreported unemployment rates, particularly in the U.S. where unofficial reports put the ‘real’ unemployment rate at a much higher percentage than the ‘official’ unemployment rate;

• I continue to wonder where U.S. job growth is going to come from as manufacturing jobs are not returning in any quantity, where as I see things technological change in capital intensive manufacturing businesses continues to result in manufacturing job losses – albeit at rates reduced from those experienced three years ago; and,

• based on my review of the article I suggest a new term may pop-up soon that I have not yet seen used.  Based on wording of the Director of the ILO International Institute for Labor Studies – that term is ‘double-dip unemployment’.  Clearly double-dip unemployment, should it occur, is something to lose sleep over.

The article is titled ‘World Heading for Jobs Recession, Unrest: ILO’ – reading time 3 minutes

You might also want to read an article titled ‘These 5 Charts Clearly Show Just How Major – and Depressing – the Current (U.S.) Unemployment Situation Really Is’ – reading and chart review time 5 minutes.  This article includes 5 charts that compare reported U.S. unemployment rates going back to 1947 with the S&P Composite (interesting, but I am not sure how relevant), the ratio of U.S. employed to the over age 16 total civilian population (somewhat more interesting in my view), the average length of unemployment measured in weeks (a chart to review to see the stark difference between 2011 and all other years dating back to 1947 where the current statistic is said to be approximately twice that of any prior statistic shown on the chart), and the percentage of job losses from the peak employment month prior to each post 1947 U.S. recession (an interesting chart if you take the time to get your mind around the comparison – and a chart that does not auger well currently on its face).

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