Cambridge House Booth & Presentations!

Are you planning to attend the Cambridge House Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver this coming Sunday or Monday?  If you are, you may be interested in knowing that I have been asked to speak at two Conference sessions.  One of those is a “by Cambridge House invitation only” session aimed at accredited and professional investors.  The other is a one hour session open to all Conference attendees where I will be demonstrating the differentiators and attributes of StockResearchPortal.com.  That second session is scheduled for 2 o’clock on Sunday, January 22.

I invite you to visit the StockResearchPortal Conference Booth – Booth #1341, located close to the Conference Broadcast Center. I will be pleased to meet with any of you who attend the show at the booth. Should you visit and not find me there, please leave your cell number at the booth.  I will be pleased to call and make arrangements to meet with you.

World Bank 2012 Economic Commentary!

The World Bank has just cut its global growth forecast for 2012 to 2.5%, down from an estimate it made 6 months ago of 3.6%, and is reported as having said “even achieving these much weaker out turns is very uncertain”. The World Bank is also reported as saying that the current economic turmoil in Europe has the potential to trigger a global financial crisis reminiscent of 2008. If anything, I believe the latter to be an understatement given:

• the current greatly expanded developed country cumulative national debt amounts outstanding today versus 2008;
• what I think ultimately will prove to have been questionable mark-to-market accounting practices, particularly in the banking sector, in some of the developed countries; and,
• the credit swap derivative overhang that, as best I can tell from what I am reading, exists in the current markets to a greater degree than it did in 2008.

The article says the World Bank currently sees a global expansion of 3.1% in 2013 which is down from 3.6% it had previously forecast. Frankly, given all ongoing world events economic events, I discount any world or country GDP forecast for 2013 as currently being so subjective as to be meaningless – or certainly not something to be given much weight to.

I think importantly, the article attributes the following view to the World Bank “emerging markets are more vulnerable than (they were) in 2008 to a renewed global (financial) crisis because rich nations wouldn’t have the financial resources (today) they had back then to support their economies”.

The World Bank also is reported as having forecast:

• China’s growth would slow to 8.4% this year, a number that I have seen quoted by others; and,
• Japan’s growth to be reduced from its previously forecast 2.6% to 1.9%, and reduced its previous forecast for India from 8.4% to 6.5%.

Importantly, the World Bank also seems to be saying that it has concluded that recession has now hit the euro zone, and that threatens to exacerbate slowdowns in emerging markets.

Finally, the article says that in the event of a more severe European crisis this year, global growth could be 3.8% lower than now forecast. It does not take rocket science to subtract 3.8% from 2.5% to derive a negative percentage growth number – which as I see things would imply a potential world depressive economic client climate.  I think this also has to be important.

See a Bloomberg January 18 article titled ‘World Bank cuts global growth forecast as the euro region contracts: economy’ – reading time 4 minutes.  Also see a Reuters article January 18 titled ‘World Bank slashes global GDP forecasts, outlook grim’ – reading time 4 minutes.

Will Manufacturing Jobs Return To America?

An article on Tuesday reports that the U.S. National Science Board has reported that the United States lost more than 25% of its high-tech manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years. The report says that this has occurred as American based multinational companies have placed a growing percentage of …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 6 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

More on Possible Greece Default!

A January 17 article reports that Fitch Ratings Managing Director Edward Parker has said that Greece is insolvent, and probably won’t be able to honor a bond payment in March as the country negotiates with creditors to cut its debt burden. 

• On March 20 Greece is obligated to make a bond payment of €14.5 billion. The article reports a resumption of talks was planned for…..continue reading.                                      

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 7 minutes.

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Possibly Related Posts:

• Greek Eurozone Exit Consequences?
• Q1 2012 Europe and Eurozone GDP!
• An Accident Waiting to Happen, or ‘Ever Closer To The Cliff’!
• After Spain, is Italy Next?
• Spain and Spanish Bank Dilemma!

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