The State of The Union!

At a personal level, I feel rather sorry for President Obama.  That said, as someone who participates in the equity markets I found last night’s State of the Union address to be little more than a political speech made by a U.S. President who for reasons best known to him wants to be re-elected in November.  His consistent message as I heard it repeated over and over was “Here are the right things to do.  If the Congress, controlled by Republicans as it currently is, sends me the legislation to sign that will enact these ‘right things to happen’ I will sign them without hesitation and immediately”.  What I really heard him say was “American people, I know what is right, you know what is right, and if the Republican’s don’t get their act together and give me some legislation to sign in the next few months, re-elect me”.

I continue to think President Obama is a very good orator.  At one point you may have noticed he went so far as to borrow President John F. Kennedy’s ‘Ask not …’ phraseology when making a point.  At another point, he borrowed on Abraham Lincoln’s view of what government ‘ought to be, and what it ought not to be’.  That said, as I see things President Obama began his Presidency bound in the chains of U.S. economic chaos that Republican President George W. Bush left behind, under his watch has seen America’s Cumulative National Debt increase by over 50% since he took Office, and as the incumbent U.S. President he is faced (until at least next January) with U.S. Federal Deficits and Unemployment Rates that are unsustainable.

Do I agree with much of what President Obama last night said needs to be done?  I do.  Am I a believer that last night’s State of the Union address will somehow breath ‘new life’ and ‘political change’ into the U.S. Senate and Congressional Chambers?  Unfortunately I don’t.

If you want to read but one more article on President Obama’s address, you might consider ‘In State of the Union, Obama warns economic disparity threatens middle class’ published last night by The Washington Post – reading time 4 minutes.

Greece On The Precipice?

Two articles, one Sunday and one Monday, reported that the Private Creditor Croup negotiating with the Greek government over the “Greek debt haircut” that they are prepared to take have reached their limit in those negotiations as to the amount of losses …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 1 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Eurozone Humpty-Dumpty Crack?

A January 23 article reports that the Bank of Spain has said that Spain will fall back into recession in 2012, with GDP contracting by 1.5%. Spain is reported as having come out of an 18 month recession in early 2010. The article also reports that Spain’s recently elected government has announced 2012 spending cuts of €8.9 and that it expects …..continue reading.                                      

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 1 minute.

China Acquisitions! 

A Mining Weekly article dated January 13 reports that China’s overseas acquisitions reached a record at 207 transactions in 2011, being up 10% in numbers of deals, and 12% in aggregate transaction prices – the latter being some $43 billion – from 2010. The article also reports …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 3 minutes.

U.S. Change In Tax Depreciation Rules! 

In 2009 the US tax code was changed to enable businesses to write off 100% of certain capital expenditures in the year of purchase, instead of spreading that write-off for US income tax purposes …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 1 minute.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• Greek Eurozone Exit Consequences?
• Q1 2012 Europe and Eurozone GDP!
• An Accident Waiting to Happen, or ‘Ever Closer To The Cliff’!
• After Spain, is Italy Next?
• Spain and Spanish Bank Dilemma!

Consequence of Iranian Oil Embargo?

A January 15 article written by James Hamilton, Professor of Economics at the University of California, summarizes what he thinks the consequences might be of an Iranian oil embargo.  He compares results of prior what he calls ‘episodes in which geopolitical events led to production shortfalls from key producing areas”.  The article includes charts and statistics related to these ‘episodes’, which he says occurred in 1973-74, 1978-79, 1980-81, and 1990-91. I you were born before 1950 I suggest it does not take a great memory to recall that each of those periods either preceded, or were incorporated in, periods of developed country recession.  As I read the article that is the first message the Hamilton is working to convey, the second being that it is “unreasonable to assume that Iran would not try to retaliate in some way” if a current embargo is successful.

I think this article, which is short and well written, is worth taking the time to read for a general understanding of the importance of the ongoing threats and counter-threats around an Iranian oil embargo – and I think particularly worth that time if one participates directly or indirectly in the financial markets.

See ‘Iranian oil embargo’ published in the Econobrowser Blog – reading time 5 minutes.

IMF Cuts 2012 Global Forecast!

An article in the UK Telegraph published last Thursday reports that a ‘leaked draft’ of the International Monetary Funds 2012 World Economic Outlook has Global GDP growth now forecast at 3.3%, down from 4% forecast last September. The IMF is apparently, and I think not surprisingly, downgrading its forecasts for …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 5 minutes.

SEC ‘Settlement Language’ Change – Ridiculous?

In a move that I consider to be little more than window dressing, on Friday, January 7, the US Securities and Exchange Commission said that defendants can no longer settle civil cases using “neither admit nor deny” language if they have already admitted to wrongdoing in parallel criminal cases. This is said to follow from …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes, thinking time much longer.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Gold’s Industrial Uses!

It is broadly known that silver is widely used in industrial applications. A recent article discusses the expanding application of physical gold in a number of scientific and technology applications. From my reading of the article, many of these applications relate to the use of gold in nanotechnology developments. The article lists the following physical gold applications …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• Greek Eurozone Exit Consequences?
• Q1 2012 Europe and Eurozone GDP!
• An Accident Waiting to Happen, or ‘Ever Closer To The Cliff’!
• After Spain, is Italy Next?
• Spain and Spanish Bank Dilemma!

Follow-up On Greece!

Following from my commentary in last Wednesday’s e-mail titled ‘More on Possible Greece Default!’, an article last Thursday sets out in considerably more detail much of what I said, and reports on the Wednesday meeting that I referenced in my article between Greek officials and private bondholders.   I found the detail commentary in this article useful, and recommend you take the time to read it carefully. The article concludes that “it will take stocks the usual 6 to 8 weeks to grasp what is patently obvious to anyone who is put in even 10 min. of work in analyzing the complete fallout from Europe that is about to hit”.                

See “No Deal” – Greek Bondholders Do Not Think Agreement Can Be Reached Before “Crunch Data”, published Wednesday on the ZeroHedge Blog – reading time 5 minutes.  Also see ‘Clock ticks towards Greek default’, a Reuters article re-published Thursday by the Financial Post – reading time 4 minutes.

Follow-up Commentary – Agreement Close on Greek Debt Principal Write-down?

Over the weekend it was reported that on Friday, January 20 Greece and its private creditors had made significant progress in working toward an agreement to reduce Greek debt by €100 billion. The article reports that negotiations are now centering on private sector creditors taking losses on Greek debt principal by up to 70%, and exchanging …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 8 minutes.

IMF U.S. $1 Trillion Proposal!

In the fall of 2008 I wrote a series of commentaries I titled ‘Desperate People Do Desperate Things’. I believe that to be a ‘truism’. 

In the last few days, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is reported as having proposed an expansion of its lending resources to the tune of U.S. $1 trillion. An unnamed G20 ‘official’ said to be close to this proposal is reported as saying …..continue reading.                                     

Commentary reading time 3 minutes, thinking time much longer.  Referenced article(s) reading time 2 minutes.

Will Keystone XL Turndown Cost Obama His Job?

By now everyone knows that on the afternoon of Wednesday, January 18, U.S. President Obama announced he was not approving the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline that was proposed to run almost 2000 miles from Canada’s Alberta oil Sands to the US Gulf Coast refineries. Not that my voice in this matters, but like many others I consider this to be a horrid decision, one not in the best interest of the United States for a number of reasons, and one I think likely was made by President Obama because …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 4 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 5 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• Greek Eurozone Exit Consequences?
• Q1 2012 Europe and Eurozone GDP!
• An Accident Waiting to Happen, or ‘Ever Closer To The Cliff’!
• After Spain, is Italy Next?
• Spain and Spanish Bank Dilemma!

Cambridge House Booth & Presentations!

Are you planning to attend the Cambridge House Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver this coming Sunday or Monday?  If you are, you may be interested in knowing that I have been asked to speak at two Conference sessions.  One of those is a “by Cambridge House invitation only” session aimed at accredited and professional investors.  The other is a one hour session open to all Conference attendees where I will be demonstrating the differentiators and attributes of StockResearchPortal.com.  That second session is scheduled for 2 o’clock on Sunday, January 22.

I invite you to visit the StockResearchPortal Conference Booth – Booth #1341, located close to the Conference Broadcast Center. I will be pleased to meet with any of you who attend the show at the booth. Should you visit and not find me there, please leave your cell number at the booth.  I will be pleased to call and make arrangements to meet with you.

November U.S. Net Trade Deficit!

The US commerce department recently released a report stating that the U.S. net trade deficit for November was 47.8 billion, exceeding analyst expectations by 2.8 billion. Those of you who read these e-mails regularly know that I consider the U.S. net monthly and cumulative trade deficit figures important economic markers.                

Once again, the U.S. net cumulative trade deficits from the time (1971) President Nixon ‘renounced Bretton Woods’ and the world changed to a non-backed fiat currency system has:

• grown from a zero base in 1971 to about (yet to be finalized) U.S.$8.5 trillion by the end of 2011;
• I think importantly, grown from about U.S.$2.0 trillion to U.S.$8.5 trillion in the 12 year period ended 2011.  That is an increase of 425% after 1999; and,
• the current monthly U.S. net trade deficit ‘run rate’ is +/-U.S.$45 billion.

For me, this represents obvious weakening of the U.S. economy again in 2011 when measured against economies of some of its principal trading partners.

I urge you to think carefully about this, and the fact of ongoing and unrelenting monthly US net trade deficits. I suggest you take the time to discuss these trade deficits with your investment advisor, in particular questioning him/her as to what he/she makes of them in general – and specifically with respect to what they mean to the future direction of the U.S. equity markets. I do not believe they should think that this cumulative buildup in net trade deficits is (or will be) irrelevant to U.S. equity markets. If indeed that is their answer, please let me know that at info@stockresearchportal.com.

You might want to read an article titled “US decline in economic freedom threatens prosperity” that was published on January 13 on the Real Clear Markets blog – reading time for minutes. That article reports that an “Index of economic freedom” recently ranked the United States 10th in the world on that attribute. Interestingly the article reports Canada is ranked by the study as the “freest economy in the northern hemisphere”.

See Reuters “November trade gap widens, biggest since June” – reading time 4 minutes.

Moody’s Gives France (Temporary?) Reprieve!

An article Monday reported Moody’s Rating Agency has said it was ‘for now’ maintaining France’s ‘top’ AAA credit rating but that it “will update the market during the first quarter of 2012 as part of the initiative to revisit the overall architecture of …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 3 minutes.

Global Economic Risks – More of the Same!

An article Monday by Bill Hester of Hussman Funds identifies what he considers five Global Risks to monitor in 2012.  These are, as Mr. Hester sees things:

• the persistence of wide spreads among european debt (issues) – even if bond holders …..continue reading.                           

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 6 minutes.

Hopeless At Seeing Reality!

I suggest you read and think about a very short article written by Danielle Park, a portfolio manager in a small town about 50 miles north of Toronto. Ms. Park has picked up on Federal Reserve transcripts of 2006 meetings that were released …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 2 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• Greek Eurozone Exit Consequences?
• Q1 2012 Europe and Eurozone GDP!
• An Accident Waiting to Happen, or ‘Ever Closer To The Cliff’!
• After Spain, is Italy Next?
• Spain and Spanish Bank Dilemma!