Aug
12
2011
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| Listen to this commentary |
On August 4, 2011 I had the opportunity to interview Jeffrey Christian of New York based CPM Group. By reputation he is a world authority on the precious metals and commodities markets, and at various times has advised the International Monetary Fund, the United Nations, the World Bank, and many of the world’s largest mining and industrial companies, investment banks, as well as institutional and individual investors.
Jeff founded New York based CPM Group in 1986, and is its Managing Director. CPM Group is a commodities market research, consulting, asset management, and investment-banking firm. It has for over 20 years delivered unique, market-leading commodity research and related services to clients ranging from individual investors to leading international organizations. CPM Group recently released its annual Gold Yearbook 2011 and its Silver Yearbook 2011.
I met Jeff over two years ago when I visited him in his New York office. I believe him to be a bright, independent, and objective thinker who does not hesitate to disagree with those whose views differ from his. That said, he listens well, thinks through his positions, and doesn’t ‘disagree to disagree’. From my perspective Jeff is the very sort of person whose views ought to be listened to, and thought carefully about. I recommend you take the time to listen to the four parts of this interview, which range in length from 7 – 15 minutes.
My interview with Jeff is divided into four (4) parts. In Part 1 of this interview Jeff answered questions with respect to world economic matters as he saw things on August 4, 2011. Parts 2, 3 and 4 of this interview cover his current views on physical gold, physical silver, and copper respectively. Each of my e-mails this week will include one part of my interview with Jeff. All four Parts of this interview will continue to be available after Friday on StockResearchPortal.com.
Today’s interview on the topic of copper is about 15 minutes long.
After the North American markets closed on Monday I again interviewed Jeff to give him an opportunity to express updated views to August 8 (following the close of the North American financial markets) with respect to the S&P U.S. Credit downgrade and (in turn) world economic matters, gold, silver, and copper. This second interview, now available on StockResearchPortal.com can be listened to here – listening time 15 minutes.
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Jan
06
2011
| China – World Bank Bonds
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An article today titled ‘World Bank issues its first-ever yuan bonds‘ – reading time 1 minute – reports that for the first time the World Bank said it is raising 500 million Yuan (U.S.$76 million) by issuing two-year bonds, and that the bonds will have an ‘AAA’ rating. The article notes that in 2010 the Asian Development Bank, Caterpillar and McDonalds issued Yuan bonds, but to have the World Bank now do this strikes me as ‘stepping things up a notch’.
While U.S.$76 million is a drop in proverbial bucket in terms of quantum, I think this is something that likely wouldn’t have happened two years ago, makes a statement of sorts, and that it is worth watching to see if further (and larger) such Yuan bond issues are offered going forward.
| Transfer Pricing |
A Seeking Alpha article this morning discusses China Transfer Pricing, among other topics – ‘transfer pricing’ section reading time 2 minutes. Transfer Pricing is something that in all the Blog Posts and Stock Research Portal e-mails that I have written over the past three years I have never thought to discuss – in circumstances where in my valuation consulting practice over the years I have had a fair amount of exposure to multi-national companies, and actually think I know something about Transfer Pricing and what I think are likely prospective transfer pricing issues. That said, I believe knowledge of what transfer pricing is, how it works, and how it impacts the profitability and free cash flows of international businesses ought to be on the agenda of every equity investor across all industry sectors, including the resource industries – although in some respects resource companies may enjoy some isolation from problems that can arise out of ‘transfer pricing issues’.
Transfer Pricing in concept is not particularly complicated but, like most things ‘the devil is in the detail’ and the practical application of Transfer Pricing can be extremely complicated. At a high ‘overview level’, transfer pricing is all about how companies with operations in more than one income tax jurisdiction ‘intercompany price’ the activities that occur among those operations. By way of simple example, assume Company A is incorporated and headquartered in the United States, that it owns a manufacturing plant in Singapore, owns a manufacturing and sub-assembly plant in China, and in the United States owns a head office, a research and development facility, a ‘final’ assembly plant, and a product distribution network. Finally assume Company A only sells its product in the United States, and that on a consolidated basis generates both accounting profits and free cash flow, and each country it operates in has different income tax rules and rates. In this example Company A is motivated to minimize the consolidated income tax it pays on its consolidated profit. On the other hand, each of China, Singapore, and United States is motivated to maximize the income tax paid to each of them by Company A.
So how is this ‘multi-party’ respective self-interest ‘tension’ dealt with? Through a mechanism established by Company A called a ‘Company A Transfer Pricing System’ that, through the application of so-called ‘arm’s length equivalent’ tests, results in Company A’s aggregate pre-tax profits being allocated – subject to scrutiny by the taxation authorities of each of China, Singapore, and the United States – to each of the three countries in which Company A has operations.
I believe that Transfer Pricing ‘tensions’ among individual multi-nationals and the income tax regimes of the countries in which operate will become an increasingly more to the fore as individual income tax jurisdictions continuously look more aggressively for sources of tax revenues. I further believe Transfer Pricing is something equity investors need to be aware of and think about. I plan to comment further on this issue in subsequent e-mails.
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Insider Trade Table Rationale
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A Subscriber posted the following question yesterday to Stock Research Portal’s Investment Education Q&A Forum: “Why might it be useful to research a mining company whose insiders are purchasing shares in the open market? I noticed with interest that in the Stock Research Portal daily e-mails I am receiving that they now include a table (see ‘Yesterday’s Insider Trade Highlights‘ below) that list the companies where insiders the previous day reported open market share purchases. I am curious as to how much weight I should put on this information when making a decision as to whether to invest in a particular mining company”.
When I saw that question, I realized that I simply began to insert that table about two weeks ago without any accompanying reason for doing so. The table has proven to be popular with readers, and so prior to reading that question yesterday the penny of ‘setting out a reason for the table’s existence’ hadn’t dropped for me. My answer to that question, which you can also read on our Investment Education Q&A Forum, follows:
“Assuming (1) insiders of a company have a good working knowledge of the operations, strategies, and general prospects of that company, and (2) that if an insider buys shares of a company in the open market he/she does so believing at the time of the transaction the market is undervaluing the company’s shares – or otherwise he/she would not have purchased the shares – then an ‘insider purchase event’ may well make the company ‘worth researching’ as a possible investment or trading opportunity.
Having said that, the fact an insider has made an open market purchase doesn’t mean investors and traders should necessarily buy shares in that company. As I see things, such a transaction is simply a ‘flag’ that says ‘here is what a supposedly company knowledgeable person has done’ – and ‘perhaps it is worthwhile to expend some research time to determine (if possible) what factor(s) might have caused the insider to purchase shares at that time, and in the quantities they did’. By conducting research on that company investors and traders can then determine (perhaps with the help of professional advisors) whether the company shares represent a buying opportunity that they might not otherwise have identified, but for taking note of the insider trade ‘flag’.”
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| Additions to Stock Research Portal’s Company Universe |
Today we added the following Companies to our Company Universe:
Cerro Resources NL (TSX:CJO). We currently categorize Cerro Resources NL as a gold explorer operating principally in Mexico with operations in Australia. The company also explores for copper, molybdenum and silver. Cerro Resources NL’s current market capitalization is approximately Cdn$110 million. Review research data on Cerro Resources NL.
Encanto Potash Corp. (TSXV:EPO). We currently categorize Encanto Potash Corp. as a potash explorer operating principally in the Canada (Saskatchewan). Encanto Potash Corp.’s current market capitalization is approximately Cdn$100 million. Review research data on Encanto Potash Corp.
Rio Novo Gold Inc. (TSX:RN). We currently categorize Rio Novo Gold Inc. as gold explorer operating principally in South America (Brazil). Rio Novo Gold Inc.’ s current market capitalization is approximately Cdn$135 million. Review research data on Rio Novo Gold Inc.
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Press Release Highlights
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The following table summarizes the companies in Stock Research Portal’s Company Universe who yesterday issued Press Releases and whose shares increased in price from the previous day’s close by more than Cdn$0.05, more than 10%, and whose share volumes yesterday exceeded their trailing 3 month average trading volume. You can research each of these companies by clicking on the company name in the table.
| Company |
Sub-Industry |
Closing Price* |
Price Change* |
% Price Change* |
% Vol / 3 Mths Avg* |
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Gold
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1.10
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0.15
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15.8 |
311.2 |
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Uranium
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1.06
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0.21
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24.7 |
186.7 |
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Base Metals
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2.42
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0.25
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11.5 |
320.2 |
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Gold
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0.51
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0.06
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13.3 |
362.1 |
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Gold
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3.06
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0.42
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15.9 |
358.5 |
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Molybdenum
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0.35
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0.07
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23.2 |
602.4 |
* Yesterday’s data, or latest trading day’s data, as applicable
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Insider Trading Highlights
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The following table summarizes the companies in Stock Research Portal’s Company Universe for who our system yesterday reported insiders who filed reports indicating they had acquired shares through ‘purchase’ transactions. You can research each of these companies by clicking on the company name in the table.
| Company Name |
Sub-Industry |
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Gold
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Focus on Gas
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Focus on Gas
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Base Metals
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Base Metals
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Gold
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Oil & Gas Services
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Silver
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Gold
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Nov
11
2010
Read ‘Structural Unemployment, China/REE, Base Metals Usage’, e-mailed today to StockResearchPortal.com Subscribers. The e-mail:
- discusses what I see to be an underlying structural issue related to U.S. Unemployment – something I think is particularly important in the context of potential U.S. economic recovery;
- provides a link to an interesting Chart on 2009 Rare Earths production;
- discusses changes in base metal usage between the developed and developing countries between 1995 – 2010; and,
In part, the e-mail reads:
“Structural Unemployment
An article this morning in the Wall Street Journal is titled ‘High (U.S.) Unemployment Not Structural Problem’ says that “Fears high unemployment levels are structural in nature and beyond the aid of monetary policy are wrong, a new paper from the Federal Bank of San Fransisco argues”. Here is a link to the referenced paper, which is titled ‘Is Structural Unemployment on the Rise?’. I suggest you consider reading both articles, and think hard and reach your own conclusions about the issue of U.S. Structural Unemployment – reading time for the WSJ article 3 minutes, and for the Fed paper 8 minutes. I see U.S. Structural Unemployment as an issue I may not have thought about entirely correctly up to this morning – although now having read the referenced articles I so believe my previous conclusion that there is important U.S. Structural Unemployment was, and continues to be correct.
Structural Unemployment is defined as (per Wikipedia): “a form of unemployment resulting from a mismatch between the sufficiently skilled workers seeking employment and demand in the labour market. Even though the number of vacancies may be equal to, or greater than, the number of the unemployed, the unemployed workers may lack the skills needed for the jobs — or may not live in the part of the country or world where the jobs are available”.
Until this morning I have written on more than one occasion that the U.S. suffers from Structural Unemployment that will be difficult, if even possible, to remedy because of the approximate 40% of its manufacturing jobs that have been lost after 1999 and won’t (or so I think) be returning. What the Fed paper has focused me on this morning is (1) the definition of Structural Unemployment set out in the previous paragraph, and (2) importantly, the loss in U.S. jobs in the past three years in the construction and real estate sectors. According to the paper “construction employment declined nearly 25% from the start of the recession through the end of 2009”.
The paper concludes that there is a substantive relationship “between the bursting of the (U.S.) residential real estate bubble and the need for many unemployed construction workers to find work in other sectors” (the paper mentions ‘health care’) and “the effects of both these factors are likely to be transitory rather than permanent”. The Fed paper does not mention ….. – to read more click here
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Aug
19
2010
Read ‘BHP/Potash Corp, Economists, Gold ‘Risks’’ e-mailed today to StockResearchPortal.com Subscribers.
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information and stock research covering diamond stocks, gold stocks, silver stocks, copper stocks, potash stocks, uranium stocks, and other resource stocks.
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