Read ‘Global Recovery, Equities Disconnect, U.S. Jobs Report’, e-mailed today to StockResearchPortal.com Subscribers.  The e-mail discusses:

• a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace article on the Developing Economies in the context of a Global economic recovery or lapse;

• what to many appears currently to be a disconnect between the U.S. equities markets and U.S. economic data releases;

• today’s U.S. Job Loss Report; and,

• StockResearchPortal.com’s proprietary ‘Segregated Press Release System’ that sorts Company Press Releases into 18 different categories (e.g. ‘Drilling and Discovery’).

In part, the e-mail reads:

“Global Recovery

I strongly suggest you take the time to read ‘Will Developing Economies Help Sustain the Global Recovery?‘ - reading time 8 minutes - written by, or on behalf of, The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.  The Carnegie Endowment is a private, nonprofit organization founded in 1910 “dedicated to advancing cooperation between nations and promoting active international engagement by the United States”.  It currently is pioneering a ‘Global Think Tank’.  The article discusses (1) growth in the emerging economies, (2) increased ‘self-sustainment’ of that growth, (3) what that means to ‘advanced countries’ growth, and (4) emerging markets stimulus.  I commented on this article this morning as follows:

The title of this article states what I consider to be a (but not the only) $64 (or should I say $64 trillion) question. My view: maybe, so long as the developing countries (read in particular China) U.S.$ holdings are not eroded by U.S. Administration ‘printing presses’, or the U.S.$’s purchasing power is somehow not otherwise eroded.

To me this is the rock and hard place the U.S. is in. Devalue the U.S.$ and it seems to me that has to harm the ongoing growth in developing countries - with potentially other ramifications related to those developing countries not being very happy with the U.S. at that point. Leave the U.S.$ where it is, and I think the current (or any future, irrespective of political party) U.S. Administration has nowhere to hide from U.S. accumulated and unaccrued debt and long-term liabilities.

Over the many years I operated my valuation consulting practice I turned many prospective clients at the door. I did this because if I couldn’t see a way I could help them in a meaningful way. I didn’t ‘kid them’ and ‘take their fees’. That is not to say some (or perhaps many) of them couldn’t be helped. I just wasn’t smart enough to solve, or partially solve, their respective problems.

That said, if the U.S. Administration came to my ‘consulting door’ today I actually think that in theory (note the ‘in theory’) I could give them some constructive advice. However, as a practical matter I would be convinced that it (the U.S. Administration) either wouldn’t (largely for reasons of re-election) or couldn’t (largely for reasons having to do with political partisanship issues) act on that advice. In that circumstance I would politely suggest to the U.S. Administration, like I did with all other potential clients I thought I couldn’t help, that they should find a consultant smarter than me.

Equities Disconnect?

I suggest an article titled ‘Why Aren’t Equities Selling Off More Significantly?‘ is a very good ‘food for thought read’ for anyone who invests or trades in equities - reading time 5 minutes.  I commented …..” to continue click here

Email this Post to a Friend.

Read ‘U.S. Manufacturing - Again’, e-mailed today to the over 10,000 opt-in (for e-mail) Subscribers to StockResearchPortal.com, a Resource Stock Research Website focused entirely on Mining and Oil & Gas Stocks. In summary, this Post discusses:

· the Institute for Supply Management (‘ISM’) U.S. Manufacturing Index that was reported yesterday;

· briefly, the advancement of the ‘efficient market theory’ by a ‘high-end’ Investment Advisor – and my view on the ‘efficient market theory’ (don’t rely heavily on it); and,

· what I see as an important distinction that must be made when discussing U.S. manufacturing, as contrasted to discussing U.S. Jobs.

In part, the e-mail reads:

“U.S. Manufacturing

An article Sunday titled ‘Who Said Manufacturing Is Dead?’ discusses the Institute for Supply Management (‘ISM’) that was due (and was reported) yesterday (September 1). The author says there has been a high correlation between the ISM monthly reported number and the S&P 500 over the past two years – and produces a chart in support of that. Apparently the ISM index stood at 52.8 one year ago, was reported at 55.5 for July, and according to Econoday, will have to drop to the ‘42’ area for overall U.S. GDP to ‘go negative’. While I find all this interesting, I am much more interested in long-term well considered prognostications than I am in month/month statistics. I commented on the article Sunday as follows:

It seems to me there is a disconnect in the thinking of many between U.S. manufacturing and U.S. unemployment. To be clear, I don’t think with technological change introductions that result in higher productivity - and often more permanent unemployment - that U.S. manufacturing for export de facto has to deteriorate from here. In fact, it might strengthen. That is good for the U.S.

However, as I see it, U.S. manufacturing for domestic consumption invariably will have to suffer if the U.S. unemployment rate does not drop as a result of meaningful job creation at continuing ‘comparatively high hourly labor rates’. If U.S. unemployment worsens from here or U.S. average labor rates paid to those with jobs deteriorate - and I think there is a real chance of both of those things occurring in tandem - then it seems to me U.S. domestic manufacturing will have to retract over time.

My comment received neither ‘thumbs-ups’ nor ‘thumbs-downs’ – which I find curious, as my comment was neither long nor complicated, in circumstances where I see it as somewhat contentious.

As reported in an article today titled ‘So How’d You Like That ISM Number’ the August ISM number came in yesterday morning at 56.3. The U.S. markets reacted very positively – the Dow was up 255 points (2.5%) yesterday. Karl Denniger, the article’s author, says that in light of other prevailing economic factors he is not ‘impressed’ by the ISM August number viewed in isolation – or at least that is how I read what he says. If you are an equities investor you can read the article by clicking here. I commented on it as follows:

Good for you, Mr. Denniger. I for one agree with you, and think you ought not ‘to be impressed’ with yesterday’s market performance.

The people whose livelihoods are more dependent on ‘good markets’ than on ‘bad markets’ strike me …..” to continue click here

* * * * *

The e-mail also included ‘Today’s Featured StockResearchPortal.com Data Component’ – being ‘My Trading Portfolio’, described as follows:

StockResearchPortal.com offers Trading Portfolio tables that each trading day show updated price and volume changes for Companies in our Company Universe on that trading day. You can find these tables by clicking on the gold ‘My Trading Portfolio’ button in the upper center of our Home Page, or on ‘My Trading Portfolio’ in the middle Main Navigation Bar on any webpage. We invite readers to visit StockResearchPortal and review this feature.

* * * * *

Visit StockResearchPortal.com for economic news, economic indicators, commodity charts, and stock data covering aluminum stocks, base metal stocks, beryllium stocks, chromate stocks, coal stocks, cobalt stocks, copper stocks, diamond stocks, feldspar stocks, germanium stocks, gold stocks, iron stocks, lithium stocks, magnetite stocks, manganese stocks, molybdenum stocks, nickel stocks, niobium stocks, palladium stocks, platinum stocks, potash stocks, rare earth element stocks, royalty and by-products stocks, silver stocks, silver streaming stocks, tantalum stocks, titanium stocks, uranium stocks, vanadium stocks, and zinc stocks

See Blog Legal Disclaimer

Email this Post to a Friend.

Read ‘U.S. Recovery:  Spending vs. Saving, Cyclical vs. Structural Unemployment, Double Dip’ e-mailed today to the over 10,000 opt-in (for e-mail) Subscribers to StockResearchPortal.com, a Resource Stock Research website.  In part, the e-mail reads:

An article today titled ‘Spending vs. Saving: Good or Bad?’ advocates saving by U.S. Consumers as ‘the road to recovery’.  I commented on this article, which I suggest you read - reading time 5 minutes - as follows:

“U.S. Recovery: Spending vs. Saving

As I see things, the fewer moving parts something has, the easier it is to understand and hence deal intelligently with in a short time period. The corollary to me is that the more moving parts something has, the more complex it is to understand to the point where if indeed it can be adequately understood at all, the longer is the time frame necessary to deal with it.

I do not believe the U.S. economic problems (note the plural) are as simple as consumer spending vs. consumer savings - nor do I think it likely Mr. Harding does either. That said, I do think there is little doubt that U.S. consumer spending has been the most important part of the ‘gas’ that has fueled the U.S. economy for decades - and that if a car runs out of gas it ceases to be able to deliver its occupants to wherever it is they want to go.

The idea that a population where a large number are without jobs or question their job security can either spend or save at levels it did when jobs ‘were more available and presumed secure’ I see as impractical at best, and nonsensical at worst. I am reminded of a child’s rhyme I once heard: ‘Michael, Michael motorcycle, ran out of gas and fell on his ___’.

The American economy is highly complex with many continuously moving parts, and with new and unexpected ones rearing their respective heads every day - the BP spill, the latest Hurricane, a new ‘trading partner’ issue, a ‘terrorism threat’, etc., etc. I don’t have an ability to understand all the complex inter-workings of it. I will say, that intuitively I think the core issues - that unfortunately I think …….” continue reading

*                    *                    *                    *                    *

Visit StockResearchPortal.com for economic news, economic indicators, commodity charts, and stock data covering aluminum stocks, base metals stocks, beryllium stocks, chromite stocks, coal stocks, cobalt stocks, copper stocks, diamond stocks, feldspar stocks, germanium stocks, gold stocks, iron stocks, lithium stocks, magnetite stocks, manganese stocks, molybdenum stocks, nickel stocks, niobium stocks, paladium stocks, platinum stocks, potash stocks, rare earth element stocks, royalty and by-products stocks, silver stocks, silver streaming stocks, tantalum stocks, titanium stocks, uranium stocks, vanadium stocks, and zinc stocks.

See Blog Legal Disclaimer

Email this Post to a Friend.

Read ‘U.S. Banking, Greenspan Commentary’ e-mailed today to the over 10,000 opt-in (for e-mail) Subscribers to StockResearchPortal.com, a Resource Stock Research website.  In part, the e-mail reads:

“An article today titled ‘Time to Relax Frannie’s Underwriting Criteria’ is a commentary on, and criticism of, a New York Times article that apparently was critical of government policies it claimed were less lenient than they should be - and that as a result potential ‘investors’ in, who would then become ‘renters of’, U.S. residential real estate are participating less in the current U.S. Housing market than they otherwise might.  I think the author of the ‘Time to Relax …’ article makes good points, and suggest you read it here - reading time 3 minutes.  I added the following comment to it:

Presumably those ‘investors’ with adequate income and capital to covenant new loans are able to borrow for whatever purpose they have in mind. Whether U.S. residential real estate is a good investment in this environment is, of course, another question altogether.

As I see it, one of the principal reasons the U.S. banking system is in the ‘jam’ is because it seemed from 1999 - 2008 to forget about (abandon may be the far better word) the importance of borrower income and underlying asset loan covenants. Why would now it make sense for U.S. banks to lower covenant requirements in the face of high unemployment, an uncertain consumer environment, and a loss in manufacturing jobs that aren’t very likely to return?

I am a strong believer that while the current U.S. Administration inherited a ‘complete economic mess’, its stimulus packages and administration of them has done two things:

· created false hope …….” continue reading

*                    *                    *                    *                    *

Visit StockResearchPortal.com for economic news, economic indicators, commodity charts, and stock data covering aluminum stocks, base metals stocks, beryllium stocks, chromite stocks, coal stocks, cobalt stocks, copper stocks, diamond stocks, feldspar stocks, germanium stocks, gold stocks, lithium stocks, magnetite stocks, manganese stocks, molybdenum stocks, niobium stocks, paladium stocks, platinum stocks, potash stocks, rare earth element stocks, royalty and by-products stocks, silver stocks, silver streaming stocks, tantalum stocks, titanium stocks, uranium stocks, and vanadium stocks.

See Blog Legal Disclaimer

Email this Post to a Friend.

Read ‘Hyperinflation - Must Read, Bullion/Shorting Alternative?, Why I Write These E-mails’ e-mailed today to the over 10,000 opt-in (for e-mail) Subscribers to StockResearchPortal.com, a Resource Stock Research website.  In part, the e-mail reads:

“Hyperinflation - Must Read

I strongly recommend you take the time to read ‘Hyperinflation, Part II: What It Will Look Like‘ - reading time 10 minutes.  I commented on this article this morning as follows:

Mr. Lira, I have found your article extremely interesting, and excellent ‘food for thought’. That said, I will greatly appreciate it if you take the time to reply to this comment. I am very interested in your views on how, if at all, you think the fact of the Chinese Government’s holding of massive amounts of its wealth in U.S. Treasuries and other U.S. debt will influence the likelihood of hyperinflation occurring in the U.S. I am of a mind that the U.S. is caught between a ‘rock and a hard place’ because of possible consequences to China of U.S.$ being significantly discounted pursuant to the U.S. directly or indirectly discounting its currency in order to bring an element of balance back to its cumulative debt - and its continued reliance on China and other countries to purchase its treasuries on an ongoing basis.

You might want to address this comment by writing a further article. In any event, thank you for this one, and please respond to this comment. For you information, I think this article ought to be read by anybody who has an interest in equities - and today I am sending a link to this article (along with this comment) to the approximate 10,000 ‘e-mail opt-in’ Subscribers to www.StockResearchPorta… - a website focused on Resource Stock Research.

Bullion/Shorting Alternative?

I added the following comment to a recent article written by Jeff Neilson titled ‘Bullion as an Alternative to Shorting, Part II‘ - you can read ‘Part I’ by clicking here.  I am not suggesting buying physical gold is an alternative to shorting, but suggest you read the article - reading time 10 minutes:

Jeff, you may recall that I wrote a longer comment on your last article - the one before Part I of this series. Once again, I think you have written in both Parts I and II of this series articles that provide readers with excellent ‘food for thought’ - which is the best …….” continue reading

Visit StockResearchPortal.com for economic news, economic indicators, commodity charts, and stock data covering aluminum stocks, base metals stocks, beryllium stocks, chromite stocks, coal stocks, cobalt stocks, copper stocks, diamond stocks, feldspar stocks, germanium stocks, gold stocks, lithium stocks, magnetite stocks, manganese stocks, molybdenum stocks, niobium stocks, paladium stocks, platinum stocks, potash stocks, rare earth element stocks, royalty and by-products stocks, silver stocks, silver streaming stocks, tantalum stocks, titanium stocks, uranium stocks, and vanadium stocks.

See Blog Legal Disclaimer

Email this Post to a Friend.

Read ‘BHP Billiton/The  Global Economy, Peter Schiff/ ‘Carts and Horses’, ‘Flations ’ e-mailed today to the over 10,000 opt-in (for e-mail) Subscribers to StockResearchPortal.com, a Resource Stock Research website.  In part, the e-mail reads:

“BHP Billiton on the  Global Economy

An article yesterday titled ‘3 Reasons Why The World’s Biggest Miner (BHP Billiton) Is Worried About The Global Economy‘ shows three charts on (respectively) austerity (i.e. Eurozone government expenditures/revenues - I say ’shocking’), debt levels (U.S. borrowing by sector - broadly known but I think worth your time to review and think about), and near-term slowing of China’s economy (Money Supply (M1) and credit growth - very interesting).  Those with their ‘feet in the mud’ (people who actually operate businesses and whose ‘jobs are on the line’) in my view are people to be listened to and whose views ought to be considered carefully.  I suggest you review these three charts carefully - review time 2 minutes.

I strongly suggest (for the same ‘feet in the mud’ reason) that you take the time to read ‘BHP Sounds The Alarm On Global Growth and Commodity Prices‘ excerpted from BHP Billiton’s recent mid-year report - reading time - 3 minutes.

Peter Schiff on ‘Carts and Horses’

Well-known author and would-be politician (currently running for a U.S. Senate Seat in New York State) Peter Schiff wrote an article in Seeking Alpha yesterday titled ‘Robert Reich, Carts and Horses‘.  Mr. Reich is a former U.S. Labor Secretary who currently teaches at a California University.  I commented on Mr. Schiff’s article this morning as follows:

Although Mr. Schiff does not explicitly say that the U.S. Government ought not to take on additional debt to promote spending by those ‘not rich’, I think from this article that is his position. If it is, I agree with him. I do, however, think it unlikely …….” continue reading

Visit StockResearchPortal.com for economic news, economic indicators, commodity charts, and stock data covering aluminum stocks, base metals stocks, beryllium stocks, chromite stocks, coal stocks, cobalt stocks, copper stocks, diamond stocks, feldspar stocks, germanium stocks, gold stocks, lithium stocks, magnetite stocks, manganese stocks, molybdenum stocks, niobium stocks, paladium stocks, platinum stocks, potash stocks, rare earth element stocks, royalty and by-products stocks, silver stocks, silver streaming stocks, tantalum stocks, titanium stocks, uranium stocks, and vanadium stocks.

See Blog Legal Disclaimer

Email this Post to a Friend.

Read ‘Negative Economic Convergence?, U.S. July ‘Existing Home’ Sales’ e-mailed yesterday to the over 10,000 opt-in (for e-mail) Subscribers to StockResearchPortal.com, a Resource Stock Research website.  In part, the e-mail reads:

“Rightly or wrongly, I am sensing a number of negative things starting to converge with respect to the U.S. economy, much like pieces of a bridge falling away, being patched up, falling away again - and with each event weakening the entire structure until it eventually falls down under its own weight.

As I am sure you are well aware, we are less than 3 months away from the U.S. mid-term elections.  This is a time when I typically would expect a great deal of current U.S. Administration ‘drum-beating’ and ’spending’ to ensure, as best it can, a good mid-term election result.  I remember August, 2008 particularly well (one month before ‘Lehman’ and its then aftermath). I had speculated a few months earlier on Dow ‘Puts’ with a January, 2009 expiry date. I sold those ‘Puts’ in mid-August, 2008 because at the time I sold I believed the then Bush Administration would do everything in its substantial power to  ’prop up’ the U.S. economy until after the November 4, 2008 election date - and if the Republicans were successful in being re-elected until the January 19, 2009 Inauguration Date.  Prior to the time I sold them I had been ‘extremely offside’ on them.  While I made a small profit on those Puts when I sold them, as you may know the leverage in such ‘Puts’ is enormous - either way.  To this day I don’t regret selling because I still think my logic at the time with what I then knew made sense on the day I sold.  That said, after ‘Lehman’ (mid-September, 2008) those ‘Puts’ increased in price by over 3X between mid-August, 2008 and the November 4, 2008 election day.

So what would I do if I owned (i.e. had speculated on with money I could afford to lose) a few Dow ‘Puts’ today with a January 19, 2011 expiry date, given similar political timing with the mid-term elections fast approaching?  For sure …….” continue reading

Visit StockResearchPortal.com for economic news, economic indicators, commodity charts, and stock data covering aluminum stocks, base metals stocks, beryllium stocks, chromite stocks, coal stocks, cobalt stocks, copper stocks, diamond stocks, feldspar stocks, germanium stocks, gold stocks, lithium stocks, magnetite stocks, manganese stocks, molybdenum stocks, niobium stocks, paladium stocks, platinum stocks, potash stocks, rare earth element stocks, royalty and by-products stocks, silver stocks, silver streaming stocks, tantalum stocks, titanium stocks, uranium stocks, and vanadium stocks.

See Blog Legal Disclaimer

Email this Post to a Friend.

Read ‘Productivity/Expensive Job Losses’ e-mailed August 23 to the over 10,000 opt-in (for e-mail) Subscribers to StockResearchPortal.com, a Resource Stock Research website.  In part, the e-mail reads:

“A Wall Street Journal article Saturday titled ‘Secondary Sources: Bankruptcies, Education, Death of Manufacturing‘ discusses one person’s view with respect to ‘What’s Next for (U.S.) Manufacturing’.  Coincidentally, last Friday I had a discussion with the President of a small firm in Toronto that supplies very high-end packaging equipment to ‘Fortune 500′ chemical and food manufacturers.  Most of his customers are in the U.S.  His potential order intake continues to be quite good, and he expects to close a goodly number of orders over the next three months.  He has, of late, noticed delays in some U.S. projects, but has found those projects are not being either dropped or canceled, but rather are being postponed ‘until next year’.  He attributes such postponements to companies (or individual processing plants) having exhausted their capital fund budgets for this fiscal year, but currently expects the projects his company has been working on to be ‘top of the list’ in the 2011 capital budgets of those companies now postponing orders - time will of course tell whether those order ultimately do get booked.

So why is this small company having the current success it has, particularly in the face of a comparatively strong Canadian $?  The answer is …….” continue reading

Visit StockResearchPortal.com for economic news, economic indicators, commodity charts, and stock data covering copper stocks, diamond stocks, gold stocks, potash stocks, silver stocks,and uranium stocks.

See Blog Legal Disclaimer

Email this Post to a Friend.

Read ‘Economists?, Global Imbalances/The U.S.$’ e-mailed yesterday to StockResearchPortal.com Subscribers.

Visit StockResearchPortal.com for economic news, economic indicators, commodity charts, and stock
information and stock research covering diamond stocks, gold stocks, silver stocks, copper stocks, potash stocks, uranium stocks, and other resource stocks.

See Blog Legal Disclaimer

Email this Post to a Friend.

Read ‘BHP/Potash Corp, Economists, Gold ‘Risks’’ e-mailed today to StockResearchPortal.com Subscribers.

Visit StockResearchPortal.com for economic news, economic indicators, commodity charts, and stock
information and stock research covering diamond stocks, gold stocks, silver stocks, copper stocks, potash stocks, uranium stocks, and other resource stocks.

See Blog Legal Disclaimer

Email this Post to a Friend.