Nov
15
2011
An article this morning, written by Louisa Peacock (The Telegram), says ‘Youth unemployment to surge past 1m (million) as jobs crisis unfolds’ – reading time 3 minutes. The article mentions that the U.K. will today report over 1 million young people under 25 years old, being more than one-fifth of that group’. The article speaks to the psychological issues for those unemployed youth, and says that youth unemployment has not been this high since records were first kept in 1992.
I am reporting this, not because it comes as any great shock to me (nor do I think it should to you), but because – for me – it once again one of the greatest problems faced by the developed economies in the current economic environment. Simply put, if our governments, and more particularly our businesses, don’t step up and employ our youth we face far bigger short and long-term economic and societal problems than any of us (including our youth) simply don’t want to face – at least that is how I have seen things (and commented in these e-mails on them) for some time, and continue to see things. Simply put, employing older, otherwise retired people because they are claimed to be ‘more reliable’, or because they simply are available and want to maintain what they can of their lifestyles, is in my view ‘just plain wrong-headed’.
I suggest you watch and listen to a 5 minute video titled ‘The UK’s unemployment bomb’. While this speaks specifically to conditions in Birmingham, England’s second largest city, I think that you can apply what you see and hear more broadly.
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Nov
09
2011
To put world jobs in perspective, a recent article says that about 80 million jobs need to be created over the next two years to return employment rates to pre-crisis (I assume that means 2007 or mid-2008) levels. I also assume that world population demographics forecasts have been factored into this estimate. The article also says that a current stalled global recovery has begun to affect labor markets dramatically and that based on current trends it will take at least five years for employment in developed countries to return to pre-crisis levels. I am unable to tell from the article whether that is intended to mean developed country employment measured in absolute numbers of jobs, or measured by a reported employment rate. Finally, the article says that the International Labor Organization (‘ILO’), having issued such dire numbers, said that all this may result in social unrest in “scores of countries”. My comments:
- I have continued intuitive concern about the veracity of reported v. unreported unemployment rates, particularly in the U.S. where unofficial reports put the ‘real’ unemployment rate at a much higher percentage than the ‘official’ unemployment rate;
- I continue to wonder where U.S. job growth is going to come from as manufacturing jobs are not returning in any quantity, where as I see things technological change in capital intensive manufacturing businesses continues to result in manufacturing job losses – albeit at rates reduced from those experienced three years ago; and,
- based on my review of the article I suggest a new term may pop-up soon that I have not yet seen used. Based on wording of the Director of the ILO International Institute for Labor Studies – that term is ‘double-dip unemployment’. Clearly double-dip unemployment, should it occur, is something to lose sleep over.
The article is titled ‘World Heading for Jobs Recession, Unrest: ILO’ – reading time 3 minutes
You might also want to read an article titled ‘These 5 Charts Clearly Show Just How Major – and Depressing – the Current (U.S.) Unemployment Situation Really Is’ – reading and chart review time 5 minutes. This article includes 5 charts that compare reported U.S. unemployment rates going back to 1947 with the S&P Composite (interesting, but I am not sure how relevant), the ratio of U.S. employed to the over age 16 total civilian population (somewhat more interesting in my view), the average length of unemployment measured in weeks (a chart to review to see the stark difference between 2011 and all other years dating back to 1947 where the current statistic is said to be approximately twice that of any prior statistic shown on the chart), and the percentage of job losses from the peak employment month prior to each post 1947 U.S. recession (an interesting chart if you take the time to get your mind around the comparison – and a chart that does not auger well currently on its face).
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Nov
07
2011
A recent article titled ‘Crisis looming in Britian’s youth unemployment blackspots’ reports on four U.K. towns where it is said that as many as one in four young people are “not in education, employment or training”.
As I see things there is little to be said about this, other than such youth unemployment without any real prospects has to be something that seems likely to exacerbate in many developed countries (including the U.S.) in coming months and years, and for me represents a very real potential ‘powder keg’. This may prove to result in people in developed countries who appear to ‘have more than less’ increasingly being victims of ‘in the wrong place at the wrong time’ incidents. I hope my view on this proves to be unfounded, but suggest this is something to watch carefully for.
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Oct
25
2011
A recent article reports that fewer Americans are seeking jobs now than was the case over the past six months. The article, titled ‘Fewer Seeking Jobs’ – reading time 3 minutes – reports that in what I assume to be the week ended October 14 U.S. weekly job applications were a seasonally adjusted 403,000, down from 422,250 one month earlier. The article also reports the average jobs added in each of the past five months has been 72,000 nationwide, down about 60% from the average of this past January – April period, and only 72% of the 100,000 U.S. jobs per that are apparently believed to be needed just to keep up with monthly U.S. population growth. My comments:
- I find these statistics, particularly the 422,250 number for weekly job applications a month ago, too specific to be believable;
- I would have thought that this is the time unemployed people would have ‘upped their job searches’, given that the seasonally busy U.S. Thanksgiving and Christmas retail season is upon us;
- if the stated figures are to be believed, given in particular the time of year, I can’t see how these numbers can be harbingers of much that is good in the context of the U.S. economy; and,
- if the U.S. Federal Reserve runs true to form, watch for Quantitative Easing #3 in some form or other in the next four months.
I suggest you think about my conclusions, and then reach your own. It seems to me U.S. job generation has to be critical to U.S. societal well-being.
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