Archive for the 'General' Category

Sep 02 2011

Steve Jobs Neighbour

You all know ‘people are people’.  Pick the most famous man you can think of – historic or current.  If you think about it, you know he puts his pants on one leg at a time, has had personal trials and tribulations, business and personal problems, failures and successes (often in that order), insecurities and doubts, times of happiness and times of sadness, and so on.  This morning I came across an article written about Steve Jobs by one of his neighbours.  I think it brings the point of ‘ordinariness’ to someone who is clearly not ordinary, and worth taking 3 minutes out of your day to ponder.

I have never met Steve Jobs, but I have met a handful of people who achieved enormous economic success based on their own abilities and elbow grease.  A ‘Steve Jobs’ type once asked me when I was offering him consulting advice “Why do you do what you do?”.  My immediate answer was: “Because I get to know people like you ‘up close and personal’”.

The best of the ones I got to know ‘up close and personal’, while no doubt special in their own way, had a down to earth ordinariness about them that I found very compelling.  I believe their most important common characteristic was their enormous resilience to the problems and hard things life threw at them.

The one’s I knew, and know, had absolutely ‘no give-up’ in them.  Most of those I met and worked with have now passed away, and whenever I think about them I always think to myself what a pity it is that the life of even the ‘special ones’ comes to an end.

I suggest you read the article by Steve Jobs neighbour – reading time 3 minutes – Steve Jobs contribution to our world ‘priceless’.  I wish Steve Jobs a long life.  I am sure that you do as well.

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Aug 19 2011

Internal Consistency!

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Listen to this commentary

So you know where I am going with this commentary, I am writing it in the context of my review of the many articles I comment on in these e-mails. My objective in writing this is to give you a perspective you might either not have, or not focus on the way I do, when you read media articles on the state of the economy, on general stock market direction or rationale, or on specific industries or companies.

Those of you who have read my biography know that I have spent over 40 years giving opinions on the value of public and private company shares, principally in Canada. My best guess is that I have read well over 2,000 valuation opinions written by others. Those ‘others’ include major Canadian and U.S. Investment Banking Firms, all of the large and medium sized Canadian Accounting Firms, and Business Valuation Firms.

And here is my point: One thing I always work extremely hard to ensure when I render an opinion is that the assumptions I make, and the underlying facts that I adopt, are reflected in my opinion in an ‘internally consistent’ and ‘error free’ way. Any opinion is exposed to question if its content is not ‘internally consistent’, or it is not ‘error free’, and well it should be. The simple reason for this is that if one internal inconsistency is found, or one error is found, the question that then ‘hangs over that opinion’ is: What other internal consistency or error exists? Typically in my experience, finding internal inconsistencies inevitably leads to finding errors. I do exactly the same thing when I read articles – I look for internal inconsistencies. If I find them, I then discount the author’s conclusions.

That said, let me explain what I mean by internal inconsistency through example. In a commentary yesterday I noted that I am reading an increasing number of articles and commentaries on what some perceive to be a current disconnect between the price of physical gold and the price of gold producer stocks. In one such article, which I am purposefully not identifying, the author suggested in fairly strong terms using different words than I am using here that gold/gold stocks disconnect is (to adopt a word from Mr. Bernanke’s playbook) transitory, and hence now may be a good time to buy the shares of gold producers in lieu buying physical gold. The author discussed the volatility of the equity markets, but dismissed it by assuming that volatility likewise is transitory, without providing any macro-economic outlook other than to be dismissive of fiat currencies. Finally, the author referenced the current gold price in two contexts (albeit separated by several paragraphs) saying that currently:

  • the gold price was supportive of gold mining operations that would not be commercially viable at lower gold prices; and,
  • physical gold is overpriced.

It seems to me those two comments are ‘internally inconsistent’, and that the author’s conclusion based on what he wrote questionable at best.

I suggest you focus on the ‘internal consistency’ of the media articles and commentaries you read if you do not already do that.

Visit Stock Research Portal for free stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

 

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Jul 06 2011

Two Interesting Videos!

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Listen to this commentary

I recently found two videos I thought particularly interesting, and hence am bringing them to your attention.

The first is titled ‘Missouri River – Possibility Of Dam Failures = Flooding of Epic Proportions‘ – listening time 6 minutes.  This video is a verbal only interview of Bernard Shanks, advisor to Resource Renewal Institute.  Not only does Mr. Shanks speak to his concern with respect to what he sees as possible near-term dam failures on the Missouri, which he says “could result in flooding of Biblical proportions”, he makes a number of more general statements with respect to the state of U.S. infrastructure.  You may recall I consider lack of spending on infrastructure in developed countries a problem that is growing by the week as all infrastructure deteriorates over time and requires constant ‘sustaining capital reinvestment‘.  Infrastructure deterioration typically accelerates over time if there is no program to consistently maintain, repair, and enhance it.  You can read my June 2 comments on infrastructure here.

The second titled ‘Desperate Measures In Real Estate‘ – watching and listening time 3 minutes – is a video made by a Boynton Beach, Florida homeowner interested in selling her family home.  I think the video is well done.  The homeowner, Lisa Turner, is articulate and well presented.  She claims that houses (at least in her area) are being sold in circumstances where vendors are “giving things away”, including cars in some cases, in order to attract buyers.  In her case, Lisa takes viewers on a tour of her home’s ‘special features’, and says she and her husband are ‘giving’ away a U.S.$30,000 high-definition 7 foot television and related hi-tech stereo system.  Of course, Lisa and her husband may well be burying all or some of that U.S.$30,000 in the house price – who would know unless an offeror added $30,000 to what otherwise would be their discount from ‘asking’ when they made their offer, and waited to see what happened. Alternately, it looks to me as if there is no real estate agent involved, so perhaps Lisa and her husband hope to make up all or part of the $30,000 by not paying real estate fees.

In any event, I found the creation of the video imaginative on one level, well done on a second level, and if it is representative of what one needs to do in an attempt to sell a house in Boynton Beach worrisome on a third level.  Not everyone is able to generate a video, and I think few ‘untrained presenters’ could do it as well as Lisa does it.  I wish she and her husband every success in consummating a sale at a price satisfactory to them.  One thing for sure, in Lisa the American entrepreneurial spirit we all hear so much about is alive and well.

Visit Stock Research Portal for free stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

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Jun 20 2011

Emails Last Week

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Some of you who receive these e-mails each day have written to ask why no ‘commentary e-mails’ were sent on Tuesday – Friday last week.  I have had the good fortune of seldom being ‘under the weather’.  Last week was an exception, and I spent a good part of the week in bed with a flu bug – hence the lack of e-mails.

That said, I am becoming increasingly concerned with the pattern I see in the writings of many of the newsletter writers and pundits who write ‘repetitive stuff’ on the Internet – and in some cases successfully charge an arm and leg for it.  One can only say ‘Greece has a sovereign debt problem’ in different ways so many times before, for me at least, it gets very old.  I am equally concerned with the repetitive interviews of the same people that appear with regularity on the subjects of fiat currencies, economic disaster scenarios, gold, silver, etc., where while a lot of what is said in those interviews makes sense to me, but where those persons being interviewed typically are thrown ‘soft-ball questions’, and aren’t really challenged on the positions they take by the interviewers.

Accordingly, I plan to be even more discriminating in my topic and selection process than I have been in the past – all in an attempt to provide you with my ideas on fresh content.  That may mean that on some trading days you will not receive a Stock Research Portal e-mail.  I have no interest in filling your respective in-boxes with repetitive thoughts I have written in the prior few weeks, and on trading days I don’t think I have anything to add you won’t receive an e-mail.  Please don’t conclude if you don’t receive an e-mail on any given day or days that is the end of them.

My objective is to generate e-mails that included independent and balanced thought you will find informative and useful.  Please let me know at info@stockresearchportal.com if at any time you either think I am not doing that, or if you have constructive suggestions for improvement to my commentaries.

Visit Stock Research Portal for free stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

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