Jun
04
2009
Each day we review over 400 articles drawn from over 50 websites and blogs that we have screened for what we see as ‘quality content’ and post over 25 of those articles on StockResearchPortal.com – organized topically by Economic News, Base Metal News, Gold News, Silver News, Uranium News, and Oil & Gas News. These articles are then retained in the website ‘system’ for three days. I then further screen and comment on some of those articles on this Blog.
To benefit to the greatest degree from this screening process readers should consider visiting the ‘Today’s News’ feature on StockResearchPortal.com each day and reviewing the headings of the articles we link to there. Readers can then efficiently link to to, and read, those articles they find of interest. Full access to this feature is available to anyone who visits StockResearchPortal.com – no Subscription sign-up is required.
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Mar
05
2009
An article yesterday says that the number of rigs drilling for natural gas in the United States fell below 1,000 last week for the first time in nearly five years, and that the current gas rig total of 970 is the lowest number of gas rigs since March, 2004.
My Comments: I think this is a particularly interesting statistic to follow, what with the drop in natural gas prices since last summer. This reduction may auger well for natural gas prices on a demand/supply basis going forward. It may not auger so well for seismic companies in the near-term. I will continue to watch this statistic going forward.
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Feb
13
2009
An article yesterday proclaimed ‘Natural-gas producers’ prospects remain iced-in’. It begins by saying that “while more than a month of the cold season remains on the calendar, the most lucrative period of increased residential and business heating demand has mostly ended for natural-gas producers, with historically high stockpiles on hand”.
U.S. natural-gas supplies are said to have stood at 2,020 billion cubic feet this past week, or 44 billion cubic feet more than last year at this time, and 24 billion cubic feet above the five-year average. The article says that companies are drastically slashing their capital budgets for the coming year and shoring up their balance sheets as cash reigns, and that:
• ”For the most part, what you see happening when you see the cutbacks [is that] people are not drilling as many wells, and so the overall production volume of the country will gradually decline”; and,
• ”Companies have to cut back if they find the economics on their projects won’t be supported by current natural-gas prices, and that’s the case in many situations today. In addition to that, if they also happen to have a lot of borrowing then they find it to be an extremely difficult time”.
Goldman Sachs is quoted as saying ‘While we are not calling a V-shaped bottom in natural gas at present, we believe we are moving closer to a bottom.’
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Feb
04
2009
An article dated February 3 – click here – titled ‘Natural Gas to Strengthen Position as Hydrocarbon of Choice’ says Oxford Analytica (click here) expects natural gas to strengthen its position as the hydrocarbon of choice, even though the international economic slowdown has shaken the outlook for gas markets. The article:
• says until 2008 it appeared future NG demand would grow strongly for the following reasons (1) Gas has relatively low emissions compared with coal, meaning gas is a less risky investment in terms of future emissions legislation, (2) Gas as a replacement for oil remains a cheaper option, (3) rejuvenation of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry makes gas more widely available and the diversification of gas suppliers enhanced the fuel’s attractiveness as a means of increasing security of energy supply, and (4) the power sector has led the increase in demand for gas reflecting the evolution of combined cycle gas turbine technology.
• says the outlook for gas has changed, at least in the short term given (1) Europe’s economic slowdown, (2) Asian industrial demand is falling, and (3) in the U.S. the gas market is experiencing strong supply growth on the one hand, and declining demand on the other.
• concludes that while falling industrial demand for gas will cause prices to fall, those lower prices will also consolidate natural gas’s position as the hydrocarbon fuel of choice, and that lower prices will also spur the development of LNG regasification capacity on ‘security of supply grounds’.
Last evening I spoke with the President of a Calgary based gas E&P about near-term gas prices. He told me as best he knew, while NG prices are very low today (futures are U.S.$4.55 this morning) compared with mid-2008 prices north of U.S.$13.50 last July, most gas analysts were forecasting even lower NG prices by this summer driven largely by continued reduced industrial usage and increasing U.S. supply – see article in today’s Calgary Herald – click here. He also told me he thought the analysts as a group were overreacting in their pricing views. That said, based on where I think the U.S. and world economies are headed in the next few months, I have little doubt that NG prices will remain depressed in the near term and perhaps longer.
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