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ADP just minutes ago released its U.S. job loss estimates for July – coming in at 371,000 further jobs lost last month.  The U.S. Government report on July job losses will be released on Friday morning.  July job losses are estimated to be less than the 473,000 U.S. jobs reported lost in June, but still well above any number that suggests job losses will not continue to be incurred in the next few months.  Certainly it does not appear to me that U.S. job recoveries are likely to be reported any time soon.  It will be interesting to see how the U.S. Stock Markets react to this news - I think they should drop, which likely means they will go up today on the ‘good news’ that U.S. job losses seem to be declining month over month and ’surely there must be a ‘green shoot’ in there somewhere’.

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As I write this at 9:15 a.m. EST on Monday, August 3 the WTI Crude Future is up $1.61 to $71.06, and the Gold Future is up $7.40 to $963.20.  At the same time the Silver Future is up $0.51 to $14.51.  So what is this telling us at a time when many politicians and central bankers are saying the recession in the U.S. is bottoming and will be in recovery by the end of 2009.  Yesterday Alan Greenspan was interviewed on National Television and actually talked about it being too early to raise interest rates as a way to curtail inflation - which for many reasons seems both premature and absurd to me.  All that said, U.S. stock futures are advancing, and all seems right with the world.  As I see it, a rise in Oil futures makes sense if traders believe U.S. economic recovery is just around the corner.  Silver, which I consider to be largely an industrial metal and very complex and hard to predict given its myriad demand/supply relationships, likewise ought to respond positively in a time of economic recovery - although those who see Silver as a monetary metal likely more simplistically link it with Gold’s behavior.  Gold to me is more simple.  I think it is about purchasing power, not price.  Hence I see the increased price of gold as an indicator that the world is anticipating erosion in the price of the U.S. $ against other currencies, and I suspect those purchasing and trading gold at root are a different crowd from those participating in the oil market - and that the ‘gold crowd’ is not so sure of economic recovery and are concerned about prospective inflation, or worse, prospective deflation.  One thing I think for sure - I think it oxymoronic that the U.S. stock indexes rise (the Dow Future is up 74 at 9:15 a.m.) and the gold price rises in concert with that.  While anything can happen going forward, at the present time I am on the end of the teeter-totter that has a box of physical gold sitting on it, not the one that has a barrel of oil sitting on it, and am certainly not on the teeter-totter that has a diversified basket of equities sitting on one or the other end of it.

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The following (paraphrased and summarized) is taken from today’s report from Oilwatch Monthly.  Information will next be updated July 15.  ‘Non-OPEC countries produce 60% of world oil production, but the output of those countries is going to ‘fall off its plateau’ in 2010.  More importantly, there currently is an overall decline in investment in oil projects in non-OPEC countries resulting from both suspension and postponement of planned projects.  The results of these things will be large as OPEC gains increasing control and influence over the world’s economy resulting from OPEC, within ‘a couple of years’ being the only group left that can increase oil exports’.  If the commentary in the referenced report is accurate (and I have not independently checked it) it seems to me the implications for the Canadian Oil Sands and natural gas (among other energy sources) may be significant.  The referenced report is replete with charts and data, and I recommend that all readers sign up to this free newsletter and read the report in its entirety.

‘Oilwatch Monthly’ is a free newsletter containing the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports.  I find its narrative and charts particularly well laid out and easy to read.  Readers can view today’s newsletter by clicking here and subscribing to it.  The website is in the Dutch language, the newsletter is in English.  In order to subscribe fill out the name and e-mail address boxes, select ‘Oilwatch Monthly’ from the dropdown, and click the  ‘Schrijf je in’ box.

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Each day we review over 400 articles drawn from over 50 websites and blogs that we have screened for what we see as ‘quality content’ and post over 25 of those articles on StockResearchPortal.com – organized topically by Economic News, Base Metal News, Gold News, Silver News, Uranium News, and Oil & Gas News. These articles are then retained in the website ‘system’ for three days. I then further screen and comment on some of those articles on this Blog.

To benefit to the greatest degree from this screening process readers should consider visiting the ‘Today’s News’ feature on StockResearchPortal.com each day and reviewing the headings of the articles we link to there. Readers can then efficiently link to to, and read, those articles they find of interest. Full access to this feature is available to anyone who visits StockResearchPortal.com – no Subscription sign-up is required.

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An article titled ‘In Chrysler Saga, Hedge Funds Cast As Prime Villain Firms Say They Were Right to Hold Out’ discusses various views on the pros and cons of President Obama’s ‘I stand with Chrysler, I stand with families, I stand with the dealers, I stand with the consumers, but I don’t stand with the hedge funds/speculators’ speech made Thursday just before Chrysler filed for Chapter 11. The President’s speech made for great rhetoric – but in my view that is about all it stood for. President Obama has a legal background. He and his advisers must understand the legal concept of ‘fiduciary responsibility’. Without knowing who the hedge ‘fund/speculators’ are, or who has invested in them, I expect the fund managers weigh their fiduciary responsibility to their investors heavily – and that their investors expect them to. It has been said that one or more of the funds who did not agree to the Chrysler deal terms had insurance on their Chrysler debt. If, for example, one assumes that insurance only was payable in the event of a Chrysler Chapter 11 filing, how could a hedge fund with such insurance not disagree with the Chrysler deal terms as presented and, in the context of what I expect would be its legal obligations to its investors, do everything it could to cause Chrysler to file for Chapter 11. I expect we will hear much more in the coming weeks. That said, I for one will be looking at the underlying facts as they come out before ‘leaping to judgment’ with respect to how the hedge funds conducted themselves based on rhetoric.

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A Wall Street Journal article today titled ‘China Lends Abroad to Ease Oil Deals’ says “China is making a push to lock up energy reserves across the globe by offering much-needed credit to governments, the latest in a $10 billion oil-for-loan deal with Kazakhstan”, that this follows similar deals this year with state oil producers in Russia, Brazil and Venezuela, and that “China’s willingness to extend credit gives its state oil companies a leg up on Western competitors such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and BP PLC”. According to the article “China’s government prefers financing acquisitions that give Chinese oil companies direct ownership of resources. But the government extends loans to foreign governments’ national oil companies directly if it gives the Chinese oil companies special access to future exploration projects or provides guaranteed oil supplies, according to bankers who work with the Chinese companies”.

As I see it, this is nothing more than what I consider a predictable increase in China’s world economic influence as it works quickly to employ its U.S.$ holdings into assets it considers strategic to China’s future.

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An article titled ‘Oil Industry Braces for Drop in U.S. Thirst for Gasoline’ says:

• a growing number of Oil Industry participants believe U.S. consumption of gasoline has peaked – including executives at Exxon Mobil Corp., private analysts and government energy forecasters;

• reasons include changes in the way Americans live and the transportation they choose, along with a growing emphasis on alternative fuels;

• much of contemporary America, from the design of its cities to its tax code and its foreign policy, is predicated on a growing thirst for gasoline;

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The following (paraphrased and summarized) is taken form today’s report from Oilwatch Monthly.  Information will next be updated March 15.  ‘On March 15 OPEC agreed that no further oil cuts in oil production will be made, and that it will focus in the coming months on complying with previously announced cuts of 4.2 million bpd – 80% of which has been achieved to date in circumstances where OPEC’s price target of U.S.$70 has not been achieved, and where OPEC now thinks it ‘has to live with’ a U.S.$42 price.  The report says that given the higher than normal stock build-ups (U.S. crude stocks increased from 334 to 350 million barrels in February) supply is still significantly higher than demand’.

‘Oilwatch Monthly’ is a free newletter containing the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports.  I find its narrative and charts particularly well laid out and easy to read.  Readers can view today’s newsletter by clicking here and subscribing to it.  The website is in the Dutch language, the newsletter is in English.  In order to subscribe fill out the name and e-mail address boxes, select ‘Oilwatch Monthly’ from the dropdown, and click the  ‘Schrijf je in’ box.

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