The International Monetary Fund’s Poul Thomsen, a Dane who currently is the Deputy Director of the IMF’s European Department and the head of the IMF’s Inspection team for Greece appears to be right in the middle of the Greek restructuring negotiations. He is reported as saying on Tuesday that the “right balance” must be struck between Greek fiscal adjustments and reforms. In essence, as I read a recent Reuters article, Thompson is using fancy words to express his concern that the societal unrest that has already arisen in Greece periodically over the past few months will escalate if Greece’s Sovereign Debt is restructured in a way the Greek people perceive as imposing incremental economic hardship on them.

This strikes me as vey likely being true. However, hardship unfortunately is a fact of life where people find themselves, whether or not for reasons of their own making, in financial or other personal difficulty. While I am sure Mr. Paulson’s views and comments are well-intentioned, the Greek Sovereign Debt problems are very difficult and complex to deal ones.  I believe in all probability they are being dealt with in circumstances where any deal that is struck has no certain chance of succeeding in the longer-term. I don’t see the Greek debt problem as one that can be handled “with kid gloves”.

To add further complexity to Greece’s problems, the same article suggests that there is a prospect of elections in Greece as early as April.  I assume any such elections could result in governmental change at what I think will have to be a crucial time in Greece’s history.

See ‘IMF’s Thomsen says must be limit to Greek fiscal pain’ published February 1 by Reuters – reading time 3 minutes.

Italian Unemployment!

A brief article Monday reported that Italy’s unemployment rate (presumably the ‘official’ Government reported unemployment rate) currently is running at 8.6%.  Importantly I think, the article reports that Italian youth unemployment is running at almost 33%, and that 60% of Italians between the ages of 18 – 34 say …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 1 minutes.

Chinese Yuan Gold ETF

And so now China’s financiers are entering the Gold ETF markets.  An article this week reports that trading in a new Yuan based Gold ETF will begin February 14 trading.  This ETF, offered by the Hang Seng Bank, will track the London gold fixing price in U.S.$.

As I see things, all this does is introduce one more financial instrument enabling investors to participate in the physical gold price.  It strikes me …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 1 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 1 minutes.

U.S. Congress Insider Trading Update!

On November 9, 2011 I first commented with respect to ability of U.S. Congressman and their aids to trade based on insider information – see “Insider Trading – U.S. Congressmen!” – reading time 4 minutes. A few days after that, CBS’s 60 Minutes documented a story on said ‘insider trading’.  My commentary did not get the response that CBS’s documentary did. (smile)

Matters have now progressed, and on January 31 a number of articles reported updates. You might want to read at least …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 2 minutes.

U.S. Home Prices – Mixed Messages?

An article Tuesday reports that in November 2011 the residential property values in 20 American cities declined by 3.7% from property values experienced in November 2010. In result, the article suggests that this could – I say, particularly if such price reductions continue – result in …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!
• Ray Dalio – October 20, 2011 Interview!

More On Greece! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

I have said in a number of these commentaries that I think Christine Lagarde, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, is someone worth listening to.  I continue to believe that, but have now developed a new slant and new thoughts about ‘how to read what she is saying’.

I won’t burden you with recounting what Ms. Lagarde has been saying over the past ten days, most recently at the Davos Conference.  You will have seen many articles discussing her various speeches.  I have provided links to a number of speeches she has made over the ten days.  Read one or more of them if you haven’t seen them, or are simply a ‘bear for punishment’.

Here is what I have concluded, and if I am right I think my conclusion is an important one.  By way of background I am sure Ms. Lagarde is well informed, well intentioned, and is working to do her best to contribute to world economic stability.  That said, while I think much of what she says makes sense to me in a theoretical sense, I believe practice based on sound theory will work only if:

• there is adequate time available to the party(ies) willing to apply sound theory to a given set of facts and circumstances; and,
• the party(ies) faced with a problem or problems clearly have a common purpose and common goals, are cohesive and cooperative, and are all playing by the same rules.

I could list several more ‘conditions’.  However, I think neither of the conditions I have set out prevails in what I see as enormously complex current prevailing world economic conditions.  First, I don’t see ‘time being on the side of the decision makers in each country’ in the context of them developing a cohesive long-term plan that will satisfy all of the world’s current major developed and developing countries.  Second, I don’t see all those countries cooperatively and in short order satisfying the second condition I have set out.  In fact, to focus once again on the United States given it is the world’s largest economy by far, the polarized politicians in Washington act as if they can’t agree on where the nearest bathroom is.

In summary, I continue to think Ms. Lagarde is impressive, and am sure she is sincere in her intent.  The problem as I see it is she is attempting to ‘herd cats’ in circumstances where some of them seem to be ‘fat cats’ and some of them seem to be ‘starving cats’.  Herding well-fed and domesticated cats is a hard enough job.  Ms. Largarde perhaps could pull that off.  However, the current cats she is trying to herd are quite different and impossible ones to herd – or so I think.

See ‘Global Challenges in 2012’.  A speech given January 23 in Berlin by Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund – reading time 7 minutes.  Also see:

• ‘IMF’s Lagarde Sounds Alarm Over Europe’, published in the Wall Street Journal Blog on January 23 – reading time 4 minutes; and,
• ‘Lagarde: World Economy Risks Depression-Era Collapse in Demand’, published by Fox Business on January 23 – reading time 4 minutes.

U.K. In Technical Double Dip?

A recent article reported that UK GDP numbers were expected to be reported to be negative in Q4 2011.  Those numbers have now reported (see second article reference), and came in at -0.2%.  That is the first quarter the UK GDP number has been negative in some time, and if Q1 2012 proves also to generate a negative GDP number the UK then will be in an official ‘technical recession’ – the first of the ‘greatly feared’ ‘double-dip’ country recessions …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 7 minutes.

Portugal – Further News Coming?

I have said in these e-mails that in a Eurozone context I worry about Spain after I first worry about Greece. Portugal has, of course, also been on my radar screen – and I suspect the radar screens of most of you as well.  Italy is also, of course, on my radar screen.

Tuesday it was reported that “untrusting underwriters” increased the cost of insuring Portugal bonds on Monday, insisting the payment be made …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 3 minutes. This Commentary includes a suggestion that you speak with your Investment Advisor(s) with respect to its subject matter.

Spain – Q4 Economic Contraction!

In Q4 2011 Spain’s economy has been reported as contracting by -0.3%. – this after seven consecutive quarters without economic contraction.  Once again, economists define technical recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of contracting GDP. Spain’s economy currently is expected …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 2 minutes. This Commentary includes a suggestion that you speak with your Investment Advisor(s) with respect to its subject matter.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!
• Ray Dalio – October 20, 2011 Interview!

Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

I suggest you take 4 minutes and read what I think is an important follow-up commentary on last week’s Davos Conference.

An article published by Bloomberg on January 29 reports that no world economy is safe from Europe’s debt crisis according “global finance chiefs”. Hong Kong’s Chief Executive, Donald Tsang, is quoted as saying:

“I’ve never been as scared as I am about the world. Nobody’s immune. You need decisive action. You need to inspire confidence.”

Concurrently, Yale University professor Robert Shiller and Nouriel Roubini both contributed negative comments and concerns. Christine Lagarde again stated she wants to increase the International Monetary Fund’s lending capacity by US$500 billion.  She is looking for further IMF contributions from countries already ‘debt-strapped’. 

At the same time, on January 30 Toronto’s Globe and Mail reported that the Greek Finance Minister has rejected a German plan to impose a Budget Overseer on Greece in return for a new €130 billion bailout. From my perspective, the Greek debt restructuring is beginning to border on the ridiculous. Without being there, the Greeks seem to be dealing at least in part with the restructuring from an emotional base. As I often have said in these e-mails, logic in the end prevails over emotion. 

In the end, it may be that Greece and its creditors will simply run out of time against a March 20 deadline. That said, I doubt that will happen.  I think Greek and the Eurozone’s problems will likely once more be time delayed, as the consequences of that not happening are so uncertain.  I continue to think that in the end Greece will very likely default on its debt in 2012, or will de facto default through a renegotiation mechanism that will so seriously reduce the owing on its remaining outstanding debt principal and the interest rates on that remaining debt that Greece effectively will have defaulted – but Greek and world leaders will be able to say Greece did not ‘technically default’.

I also do not believe that a de facto default will ultimately solve Greece’s debt problems and potential serious societal disorder.  I think it highly likely this will prove to be a very interesting summer as things heat up in Greece and other northern hemisphere developed countries in more ways than one.

I suggest you speak with your investment advisor and determine whether he she agrees with me on this or not. 

See ‘Davos Leaders Urge Europe to Fix Crisis Hurting Growth’ published January 29 by Bloomberg – reading time 3 minutes.

Also see ‘Greece angrily rejects German plan for EU budget control’ published by The Globe and Mail on January 30 – reading time 3 minutes.

Robbing Peter to Pay Paul – U.S. Life-Style & Societal Issue?

A recent article reports a number of statistics related to aging Americans that I think you ought to know about if you don’t.  I also think you should reflect on these statistics in the contexts of both current world macro-economics and your investments and investment/trading strategy.  The article apparently is based on a sample of 150,000 Americans with 401K’s.  The Canadian equivalent …..continue reading. 

Commentary reading time 4 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 8 minutes

Should The Rating Agencies Be Listened To? 

I am not sure why Jim Rogers, who apparently retired at age 37 after working with George Soros for several years, failed to include Fitch in a recent brief Internet posting he made.  While most days I read at least the headlines of what Rogers writes and think on balance much of what he says makes sense, in this case I think …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 2 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!
• Ray Dalio – October 20, 2011 Interview!

World Leaders – Greek Emotion? is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

Nouriel Roubini, the globe-trotting New York University Economics Professor who gained wide acclaim by predicting the economic events that transpired in 2008, continues to be in the economic predictions business. Friday in Davos, speaking in one of the final sessions of this year’s World Economic Forum, he is reported as having made the following specific predictions:

• Eurozone countries (I doubt he was including Germany) “and not just Greece – are insolvent”.  My comment:  I don’t think there is much news in that;
• Greece will leave the Eurozone this year, and Portugal would leave the Eurozone after this year.  My comment:  I don’t know whether or not either will  leave the Eurozone.  I think the bigger question is whether or not Greece with default or ‘de facto’ default on its debt, and that question will be answered long before the end of 2012;
• there is a 50% chance the Eurozone will break up in the next 3 to 5 years.  My comment:  I don’t have an opinion that, other than having just spent Friday in London in part talking about that very thing, I would say that the senior UK businessmen I talked with believe it is not in Germany’s interest for the Eurozone to break up;
• if the U.S. and Iran go to war, oil prices would increase by 50% and there will be a global recession.  My comment:  Roubini may be correct in this.  I have doubts as to whether the U.S. will go to war against Iran, as I think the U.S. Government likely shares that view and likely believes that a significant increase in oil prices would have a very negative effect on what I think to be a fragile U.S. economy.  That said, Leon Panetta, the current U.S. Secretary of Defense said on 60 minutes last evening that the U.S. would not tolerate Iran’s development of a ‘deliverable nuclear weapon’, so for that and other reasons I clearly could be proven wrong;
• there is a recession in the UK, the U.S. “is not doing great”, India is in slowdown, and there will be significant slowdown in China in 2012.  My comment:  antidotally, from conversations with the people I spoke with in London on Thursday and Friday things are looking quite bleak there economically.  I don’t have an informed opinion on slowdowns in India and in China other than the 2012 GDP growth rates in both those countries are forecast to decline from those of 2011.

Roubini proved to be correct in his forecasts prior to 2008.  The question has to be:  Was that a ‘one swallow does not a summer make’ moment?  It seems to me one at least needs to think hard about what Roubini says, and not dismiss it out of hand.

See ‘Eurozone will collapse this year, says Nouriel Roubini’ published by The (UK) Telegraph on January 28 – reading time 1 minute.

Commodities – The Next Decade?

In a recent article written by Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of US Global Investors, there is a very interesting Periodic Table of commodity returns which shows the annual returns for 14 major commodities including coal, copper, crude oil, gold, nickel, silver, and zinc. If you are not familiar with that table I suggest you visit this article and download …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 5 minutes.

George Soros On Europe and Riots! 

George Soros, the well-known successful investor (right up there with Warren Buffet) can – at least in my view – hardly be expected to rant about things he doesn’t believe.  A recent article reports Soros is now expressing the views: 

• that “at times like these, …..continue reading.                                  

Commentary reading time 3 minutes, thinking time much longer.  Referenced article(s) reading time 5 minutes.

Iran To Be Paid In Gold?

A January 24 article has reported that India may have agree to pay Iran in physical gold for its oil – and that China may follow suit. The article says that these moves, if made, will be made to circumvent US sanctions that target countries who trade with Iran. The article also reports that Iran and India are negotiating backup alternatives with …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 4 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 13 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• The Baltic Dry Index!
• Ray Dalio – October 20, 2011 Interview!

Roubini at Davos! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

The Baltic Dry Index tracks the cost of shipping major raw materials, and arguably is an important early measure of Global Trade. A recent article shows a chart of that index for the year 2011, and says that the index is down by approximately 40% in December from November and is down approximately 54% in Q4 2011. The author blames the European sovereign debt issues as the underlying consideration.

I am not sure the reason for the recent Index decline is just an escalation of the sovereign debt issues in Europe – in fact such a conclusion intuitively seems itself to be simplistic to me. I don’t profess to be able to pinpoint specific reasons for the Q4 2011 drop in the Index, but think those reasons have to number more than one. I was also not satisfied that to look only at 2011 in isolation as a basis for a conclusion as to whether this Index drop was an abnormality, or simply a repetitive fourth-quarter drop. Subsequent to finding and commenting on that first article, I found a second article that attributes these recent drops in the index to a normal seasonal drop in Chinese manufacturing which in turn the article attributes to Chinese New Year celebrations.  I don’t find that explanation compelling either.

Accordingly, I found (on Bloomberg) the one-year and five-year Baltic Dry Index charts.

One Year Chart

Five Year Chart

 I cannot easily do a one-year regression analysis trend line for either chart, but think such a trend line:

• for the one-year chart would in any event not be conclusive of much of anything; and, 
• over the past 5 years almost certainly is continuously downward.

This is something that strikes me as consistent with my view that all the talk over the past 2 years or more of technical economic recovery in most developed countries is just that – technical economic recovery and not important real economic recovery. It is then not surprising to me that in the last 2 weeks there has been talk in both the UK and Spain of double-dip recession in 2012. It will be interesting to see whether those concerns will extend to other countries in the next few months. It strikes me that if that happens it will be an indicator that the Baltic Dry Index is indeed the important early measure of economic activity that many seem to think it is.

The first article referenced in this commentary is titled ‘The Most Alarming Chart I’ve Seen All Week’.  It was published January 20 in the Wall St. Daily Blog (no association as best I can tell with the Wall Street Journal) – reading time 3 minutes.

The second article that speaks to Chinese Manufacturing is titled ‘Baltic Dry Index – sell-off overdone?’.  That article is was published on January 23 on the InvestmentPostcards Blog – reading time 3 minutes.

Country Risk Issue!

A January 23 article reports that in 2012 “the citizens of 59 countries – one third of the world’s countries – will have gone to the polls to choose national, state and local leaders”. Interestingly, the article also says that in 1945 there were only 12 democracies in the world, and there are now …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

2012 Recession Expectation!

John Mauldin is a U.S. newsletter writer whose commentaries I read and reference from time to time in these e-mails. I generally agree with a good part of what Mauldin says.  This may, of course, bias my views as to the efficacy of his opinions.

In an article last Thursday, he referenced the ‘Quarterly Review and Outlook’ generated by …..continue reading.                                     

Commentary reading time 2 minutes, thinking time much longer.  Referenced article(s) reading time 5 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• Ray Dalio – October 20, 2011 Interview!

The Baltic Dry Index! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

July 21, 2011 I wrote a commentary titled ‘Neat Article – Interesting Man’ – reading time for minutes. That commentary discussed referenced a lengthy article and video interview of Ray Dalio.  Dalio is the U.S. billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds in the world. At the time I wrote that commentary I said Dalio was someone I thought well worth listening to, and that it would behoove any investor, trader, or human being to listen to, and think hard about his philosophy and views.  Ray Dalio is a calm, deliberate, articulate and thoughtful speaker.

I have just found an interview by Charlie Rose of Ray Dalio that took place on October 20, 2011. I consider what Dalio says in that interview to be as relevant today as it was then, and importantly, consider what Dalio says between minutes 20 – 24 of that interview timeless and ‘must listen to’ by investor, traders, and all human beings.  The October 20 interview lasts 37 minutes, and I strongly suggest that if you have not already watched this interview you take 37 minutes out of your life at your earliest possible convenience, listen carefully to what Dalio says, and then think very hard about it.

In the aforementioned four minute interview segment Dalio says he believes and attributes a good part of his success to knowing what he doesn’t know, and continuously worrying about being wrong.  Philosophically, Dalio says:

• that if a person successfully can attack what he himself says, then he will learn from that experience;
• he would far rather be told he was wrong then be told he was right;
• “don’t believe anything – think for yourself”;
• importantly, or so I believe, he says, “the cost of being wrong is a terrible thing – therefore worry about (and continually revisit) your decisions”; and,
• the greatest gift he believes a parent can give a child is self-sufficiency – because if a person is self-sufficient they are then free to make their own choices.

While I have not remotely had the financial success Ray Dalio has had, those of you who have been reading these e-mails ought to see commonality between the views I express in these commentaries, and the advice given by Dalio.  I believe that thinking for oneself has never been more important than it is today, both with respect to the way one conducts their own day-to-day activity, and the way in which one conducts their investment and trading anticipation participation.

Please do yourself a favour.  Watch and listen to the Ray Dalio interview titled simply ‘Ray Dalio’ – again, watching/listening time 37 minutes.  It strikes me that the title of the interview is simply ‘Ray Dalio’ speaks volumes in a very positive way.

Venezuela Nationalization – Exxon?

A recent article reports that in one of the major Venezuela nationalization cases – this one involving what is said to be the world’s largest heavy oil deposit – that Exxon has will receive only 10% of what it demanded in compensation for its expropriation by Venezuela.

The article reports that Petroleos de Venezuela, the State Oil Company, said January 2 it would pay Exxon Mobil …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Experts v. The Canadian Public?

On Friday, January 6 the lead headline on the front page of Toronto’s Globe and Mail proclaimed “experts, public at odds over economy”. The article itself reported that based on a annual December survey of between 2,000 and 3,000 Canadians, almost 70% of them believe Canada is in recession. Needless to say, economists …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes, thinking time much longer.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!

Ray Dalio – October 20, 2011 Interview! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

At a personal level, I feel rather sorry for President Obama.  That said, as someone who participates in the equity markets I found last night’s State of the Union address to be little more than a political speech made by a U.S. President who for reasons best known to him wants to be re-elected in November.  His consistent message as I heard it repeated over and over was “Here are the right things to do.  If the Congress, controlled by Republicans as it currently is, sends me the legislation to sign that will enact these ‘right things to happen’ I will sign them without hesitation and immediately”.  What I really heard him say was “American people, I know what is right, you know what is right, and if the Republican’s don’t get their act together and give me some legislation to sign in the next few months, re-elect me”.

I continue to think President Obama is a very good orator.  At one point you may have noticed he went so far as to borrow President John F. Kennedy’s ‘Ask not …’ phraseology when making a point.  At another point, he borrowed on Abraham Lincoln’s view of what government ‘ought to be, and what it ought not to be’.  That said, as I see things President Obama began his Presidency bound in the chains of U.S. economic chaos that Republican President George W. Bush left behind, under his watch has seen America’s Cumulative National Debt increase by over 50% since he took Office, and as the incumbent U.S. President he is faced (until at least next January) with U.S. Federal Deficits and Unemployment Rates that are unsustainable.

Do I agree with much of what President Obama last night said needs to be done?  I do.  Am I a believer that last night’s State of the Union address will somehow breath ‘new life’ and ‘political change’ into the U.S. Senate and Congressional Chambers?  Unfortunately I don’t.

If you want to read but one more article on President Obama’s address, you might consider ‘In State of the Union, Obama warns economic disparity threatens middle class’ published last night by The Washington Post – reading time 4 minutes.

Greece On The Precipice?

Two articles, one Sunday and one Monday, reported that the Private Creditor Croup negotiating with the Greek government over the “Greek debt haircut” that they are prepared to take have reached their limit in those negotiations as to the amount of losses …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 1 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Eurozone Humpty-Dumpty Crack?

A January 23 article reports that the Bank of Spain has said that Spain will fall back into recession in 2012, with GDP contracting by 1.5%. Spain is reported as having come out of an 18 month recession in early 2010. The article also reports that Spain’s recently elected government has announced 2012 spending cuts of €8.9 and that it expects …..continue reading.                                      

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 1 minute.

China Acquisitions! 

A Mining Weekly article dated January 13 reports that China’s overseas acquisitions reached a record at 207 transactions in 2011, being up 10% in numbers of deals, and 12% in aggregate transaction prices – the latter being some $43 billion – from 2010. The article also reports …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 3 minutes.

U.S. Change In Tax Depreciation Rules! 

In 2009 the US tax code was changed to enable businesses to write off 100% of certain capital expenditures in the year of purchase, instead of spreading that write-off for US income tax purposes …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 1 minute.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!

The State of The Union! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

A January 15 article written by James Hamilton, Professor of Economics at the University of California, summarizes what he thinks the consequences might be of an Iranian oil embargo.  He compares results of prior what he calls ‘episodes in which geopolitical events led to production shortfalls from key producing areas”.  The article includes charts and statistics related to these ‘episodes’, which he says occurred in 1973-74, 1978-79, 1980-81, and 1990-91. I you were born before 1950 I suggest it does not take a great memory to recall that each of those periods either preceded, or were incorporated in, periods of developed country recession.  As I read the article that is the first message the Hamilton is working to convey, the second being that it is “unreasonable to assume that Iran would not try to retaliate in some way” if a current embargo is successful.

I think this article, which is short and well written, is worth taking the time to read for a general understanding of the importance of the ongoing threats and counter-threats around an Iranian oil embargo – and I think particularly worth that time if one participates directly or indirectly in the financial markets.

See ‘Iranian oil embargo’ published in the Econobrowser Blog – reading time 5 minutes.

IMF Cuts 2012 Global Forecast!

An article in the UK Telegraph published last Thursday reports that a ‘leaked draft’ of the International Monetary Funds 2012 World Economic Outlook has Global GDP growth now forecast at 3.3%, down from 4% forecast last September. The IMF is apparently, and I think not surprisingly, downgrading its forecasts for …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 5 minutes.

SEC ‘Settlement Language’ Change – Ridiculous?

In a move that I consider to be little more than window dressing, on Friday, January 7, the US Securities and Exchange Commission said that defendants can no longer settle civil cases using “neither admit nor deny” language if they have already admitted to wrongdoing in parallel criminal cases. This is said to follow from …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes, thinking time much longer.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Gold’s Industrial Uses!

It is broadly known that silver is widely used in industrial applications. A recent article discusses the expanding application of physical gold in a number of scientific and technology applications. From my reading of the article, many of these applications relate to the use of gold in nanotechnology developments. The article lists the following physical gold applications …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!

Consequence of Iranian Oil Embargo? is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

Following from my commentary in last Wednesday’s e-mail titled ‘More on Possible Greece Default!’, an article last Thursday sets out in considerably more detail much of what I said, and reports on the Wednesday meeting that I referenced in my article between Greek officials and private bondholders.   I found the detail commentary in this article useful, and recommend you take the time to read it carefully. The article concludes that “it will take stocks the usual 6 to 8 weeks to grasp what is patently obvious to anyone who is put in even 10 min. of work in analyzing the complete fallout from Europe that is about to hit”.                

See “No Deal” – Greek Bondholders Do Not Think Agreement Can Be Reached Before “Crunch Data”, published Wednesday on the ZeroHedge Blog – reading time 5 minutes.  Also see ‘Clock ticks towards Greek default’, a Reuters article re-published Thursday by the Financial Post – reading time 4 minutes.

Follow-up Commentary – Agreement Close on Greek Debt Principal Write-down?

Over the weekend it was reported that on Friday, January 20 Greece and its private creditors had made significant progress in working toward an agreement to reduce Greek debt by €100 billion. The article reports that negotiations are now centering on private sector creditors taking losses on Greek debt principal by up to 70%, and exchanging …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 8 minutes.

IMF U.S. $1 Trillion Proposal!

In the fall of 2008 I wrote a series of commentaries I titled ‘Desperate People Do Desperate Things’. I believe that to be a ‘truism’. 

In the last few days, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is reported as having proposed an expansion of its lending resources to the tune of U.S. $1 trillion. An unnamed G20 ‘official’ said to be close to this proposal is reported as saying …..continue reading.                                     

Commentary reading time 3 minutes, thinking time much longer.  Referenced article(s) reading time 2 minutes.

Will Keystone XL Turndown Cost Obama His Job?

By now everyone knows that on the afternoon of Wednesday, January 18, U.S. President Obama announced he was not approving the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline that was proposed to run almost 2000 miles from Canada’s Alberta oil Sands to the US Gulf Coast refineries. Not that my voice in this matters, but like many others I consider this to be a horrid decision, one not in the best interest of the United States for a number of reasons, and one I think likely was made by President Obama because …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 4 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 5 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

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• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!

Follow-up On Greece! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

Are you planning to attend the Cambridge House Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver this coming Sunday or Monday?  If you are, you may be interested in knowing that I have been asked to speak at two Conference sessions.  One of those is a “by Cambridge House invitation only” session aimed at accredited and professional investors.  The other is a one hour session open to all Conference attendees where I will be demonstrating the differentiators and attributes of StockResearchPortal.com.  That second session is scheduled for 2 o’clock on Sunday, January 22.

I invite you to visit the StockResearchPortal Conference Booth – Booth #1341, located close to the Conference Broadcast Center. I will be pleased to meet with any of you who attend the show at the booth. Should you visit and not find me there, please leave your cell number at the booth.  I will be pleased to call and make arrangements to meet with you.

November U.S. Net Trade Deficit!

The US commerce department recently released a report stating that the U.S. net trade deficit for November was 47.8 billion, exceeding analyst expectations by 2.8 billion. Those of you who read these e-mails regularly know that I consider the U.S. net monthly and cumulative trade deficit figures important economic markers.                

Once again, the U.S. net cumulative trade deficits from the time (1971) President Nixon ‘renounced Bretton Woods’ and the world changed to a non-backed fiat currency system has:

• grown from a zero base in 1971 to about (yet to be finalized) U.S.$8.5 trillion by the end of 2011;
• I think importantly, grown from about U.S.$2.0 trillion to U.S.$8.5 trillion in the 12 year period ended 2011.  That is an increase of 425% after 1999; and,
• the current monthly U.S. net trade deficit ‘run rate’ is +/-U.S.$45 billion.

For me, this represents obvious weakening of the U.S. economy again in 2011 when measured against economies of some of its principal trading partners.

I urge you to think carefully about this, and the fact of ongoing and unrelenting monthly US net trade deficits. I suggest you take the time to discuss these trade deficits with your investment advisor, in particular questioning him/her as to what he/she makes of them in general – and specifically with respect to what they mean to the future direction of the U.S. equity markets. I do not believe they should think that this cumulative buildup in net trade deficits is (or will be) irrelevant to U.S. equity markets. If indeed that is their answer, please let me know that at info@stockresearchportal.com.

You might want to read an article titled “US decline in economic freedom threatens prosperity” that was published on January 13 on the Real Clear Markets blog – reading time for minutes. That article reports that an “Index of economic freedom” recently ranked the United States 10th in the world on that attribute. Interestingly the article reports Canada is ranked by the study as the “freest economy in the northern hemisphere”.

See Reuters “November trade gap widens, biggest since June” – reading time 4 minutes.

Moody’s Gives France (Temporary?) Reprieve!

An article Monday reported Moody’s Rating Agency has said it was ‘for now’ maintaining France’s ‘top’ AAA credit rating but that it “will update the market during the first quarter of 2012 as part of the initiative to revisit the overall architecture of …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 3 minutes.

Global Economic Risks – More of the Same!

An article Monday by Bill Hester of Hussman Funds identifies what he considers five Global Risks to monitor in 2012.  These are, as Mr. Hester sees things:

• the persistence of wide spreads among european debt (issues) – even if bond holders …..continue reading.                           

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 6 minutes.

Hopeless At Seeing Reality!

I suggest you read and think about a very short article written by Danielle Park, a portfolio manager in a small town about 50 miles north of Toronto. Ms. Park has picked up on Federal Reserve transcripts of 2006 meetings that were released …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 2 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!

Cambridge House Booth & Presentations!, November U.S. Net Trade Deficit! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

Are you planning to attend the Cambridge House Resource Investment Conference in Vancouver this coming Sunday or Monday?  If you are, you may be interested in knowing that I have been asked to speak at two Conference sessions.  One of those is a “by Cambridge House invitation only” session aimed at accredited and professional investors.  The other is a one hour session open to all Conference attendees where I will be demonstrating the differentiators and attributes of StockResearchPortal.com.  That second session is scheduled for 2 o’clock on Sunday, January 22.

I invite you to visit the StockResearchPortal Conference Booth – Booth #1341, located close to the Conference Broadcast Center. I will be pleased to meet with any of you who attend the show at the booth. Should you visit and not find me there, please leave your cell number at the booth.  I will be pleased to call and make arrangements to meet with you.

World Bank 2012 Economic Commentary!

The World Bank has just cut its global growth forecast for 2012 to 2.5%, down from an estimate it made 6 months ago of 3.6%, and is reported as having said “even achieving these much weaker out turns is very uncertain”. The World Bank is also reported as saying that the current economic turmoil in Europe has the potential to trigger a global financial crisis reminiscent of 2008. If anything, I believe the latter to be an understatement given:

• the current greatly expanded developed country cumulative national debt amounts outstanding today versus 2008;
• what I think ultimately will prove to have been questionable mark-to-market accounting practices, particularly in the banking sector, in some of the developed countries; and,
• the credit swap derivative overhang that, as best I can tell from what I am reading, exists in the current markets to a greater degree than it did in 2008.

The article says the World Bank currently sees a global expansion of 3.1% in 2013 which is down from 3.6% it had previously forecast. Frankly, given all ongoing world events economic events, I discount any world or country GDP forecast for 2013 as currently being so subjective as to be meaningless – or certainly not something to be given much weight to.

I think importantly, the article attributes the following view to the World Bank “emerging markets are more vulnerable than (they were) in 2008 to a renewed global (financial) crisis because rich nations wouldn’t have the financial resources (today) they had back then to support their economies”.

The World Bank also is reported as having forecast:

• China’s growth would slow to 8.4% this year, a number that I have seen quoted by others; and,
• Japan’s growth to be reduced from its previously forecast 2.6% to 1.9%, and reduced its previous forecast for India from 8.4% to 6.5%.

Importantly, the World Bank also seems to be saying that it has concluded that recession has now hit the euro zone, and that threatens to exacerbate slowdowns in emerging markets.

Finally, the article says that in the event of a more severe European crisis this year, global growth could be 3.8% lower than now forecast. It does not take rocket science to subtract 3.8% from 2.5% to derive a negative percentage growth number – which as I see things would imply a potential world depressive economic client climate.  I think this also has to be important.

See a Bloomberg January 18 article titled ‘World Bank cuts global growth forecast as the euro region contracts: economy’ – reading time 4 minutes.  Also see a Reuters article January 18 titled ‘World Bank slashes global GDP forecasts, outlook grim’ – reading time 4 minutes.

Will Manufacturing Jobs Return To America?

An article on Tuesday reports that the U.S. National Science Board has reported that the United States lost more than 25% of its high-tech manufacturing jobs in the last 10 years. The report says that this has occurred as American based multinational companies have placed a growing percentage of …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 6 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

More on Possible Greece Default!

A January 17 article reports that Fitch Ratings Managing Director Edward Parker has said that Greece is insolvent, and probably won’t be able to honor a bond payment in March as the country negotiates with creditors to cut its debt burden. 

• On March 20 Greece is obligated to make a bond payment of €14.5 billion. The article reports a resumption of talks was planned for…..continue reading.                                      

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 7 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!

Cambridge House Booth & Presentations!, World Bank 2012 Economic Commentary! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog

In what I consider to be a “must review” of a series of 13 charts, a recent article sets out global risks in categorized and likelihood/impact quantifications. These include charts headed:

• ‘Economic risks’, which suggests the major economic risks in 2012 relate to chronic fiscal imbalances, and severe income disparity the economic risk that is suggested would have the highest impact is major systemic financial failure, but that risk is assigned a lower likelihood than are the first two;
• ‘Environmental risks’, which suggests the greatest risk to be rising greenhouse gas and gas emissions, with the second greatest risk being failure of climate change adaptation;
• ‘Geopolitical risks’, which suggest the greatest risks are terrorism, global governance failure, critically fragile states, and pervasive entrenched corruption;
• ‘Societal risks’, which suggests the greatest risks are water supply and food shortage crises; and,
• ‘Technological risks’, which suggests the principal risk is cyber attacks, with critical systems failure being said to be a higher impact risk but a lower likelihood risk.

The remaining 8 charts show the interrelationship between the various risks that are identified in all 13 charts, and depict how those risks are perceived to interact with one another.

See ‘The global risks you need to freak out about in 2012’ published by the Business Insider – reading time 8 minutes, thinking time ‘as long as you take’.

With a little digging I found that these 13 charts were taken from a report recently issued by the World Economic Forum titled ‘Global Risks 2012 Seventh Edition’. If you visit that URL, you will be able to print an 80 page PDF which not only includes the 13 charts discussed in this commentary, but extensive narrative around them. I plan to spend whatever time it takes me to read and study that World Economic Forum report, as I think that may help me consolidate my own thinking – and hence my own investment and life strategies.

Fitch Downgrades Russia!

On January 16 the Fitch Rating Agency, citing political uncertainty, downgraded its credit rating on Russian debt from “positive” to “stable”. This apparently means Fitch is …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 2 minutes.

Greece To Default Soon? – Sensationalist Headline?

An article dated January 16 reports that Greece sent emissaries to Washington Monday for meetings with the International Monetary Fund – this in the aftermath of the Greek debt ‘re-write’ negotiations that stalled last Friday (January 13).  Friday, January 13 may turn out to be an auspicious date.

The article reports that the head of the group that represents Greece’s private creditors has said …..continue reading.                             

Commentary reading time 2 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

IMF Executive Warning!

David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, was appointed to that position in late 2011. On Monday, in his first major speech since that appointment, he told a meeting of Asian finance and banking executives …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 4 minutes.

Gold Mining Company 2012 Price Forecasts!

Global accounting firm Price Waterhouse Coopers has reported in its latest ‘Gold Price Report’ that 80% of mining companies (I assume gold mining companies, but the article isn’t crystal clear on this) expect higher physical gold prices in 2012, while only 6% anticipate a decline in price. Mining executive forecasts centered on …..continue reading.

Commentary reading time 3 minutes.  Referenced article(s) reading time 3 minutes.

Visit Stock Research Portal for stock market data, analysis, and research on over 1,600 Mining, Oil and Gas Companies listed on the Toronto and Venture Exchanges. See our Legal Disclaimer.

Possibly Related Posts:

• More On Greece!
• Christine Lagarde – Listen Between the Lines!
• World Leaders – Greek Emotion?
• Roubini at Davos!
• The Baltic Dry Index!

Global Risk Charts! is a post from: StockResearchPortal.com Blog